Analysis of domestic PVC market in January

The reasons for the increase in prices in the PVC market this month are analyzed as follows:

Macro: At the beginning of this month, the expansion of the US manufacturing industry accelerated in December 2017, and the US manufacturing purchasing managers' index hit a three-month high; Domestically, China's total import and export volume in 2017 was 27.
79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.
2%.

At the end of the month, the preliminary manufacturing PMI of the euro area in January was 59.
60, a new low in three months; for the whole year of 2017, the CPI rose 1.
6% from the previous year, down 0.
4 percentage points
from 2016.
At present, the price of PVC market is not supported by rising factors, and PVC fundamentals have fallen
slightly.

Upstream market: At present, the overall trend of the calcium carbide market is flat, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, mainly because of the bad weather conditions next week and the market mentality is mainly cautious
.
The mainstream ex-factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China remained at 2850-2900 yuan / ton, which was about 100 yuan / ton lower than that in early December last year; The mainstream arrival price of calcium carbide in North China is 3060-3400 yuan / ton, which is basically stable
.
From a supply perspective, there is limited
room for calcium carbide prices to continue to fall.

Spot market: This month, the price of some domestic PVC spot market prices
.
North China calcium carbide law reported 6550 yuan / ton, flat; ethylene law reported 6750 yuan / ton, flat; East China calcium carbide method reported 6750 yuan / ton, down 10, ethylene method 7050 yuan / ton, flat; South China calcium carbide method 6770, flat, ethylene method 7000, flat
.
Raw material prices were flat, East China reported 3150 yuan, flat, Northwest reported 3420 yuan, flat
.
0-7250 yuan / ton, flat; The mainstream quotation in North China was 6900-7050 yuan / ton, down 25 yuan / ton
.

In terms of supply, most of the domestic PVC enterprises have completed maintenance in winter
.
At present, the installation of domestic PVC terminal products enterprises has remained low, mainly because of the increase in environmental protection supervision, and product enterprises based on small family-type workshops have been severely hit
.
Therefore, it is expected that the start of terminal products enterprises next week will remain weak
.

Future market forecast: This month, the overall narrow fluctuation of the domestic PVC market, PVC futures showed a wide oscillation trend at the bottom, and has not formed an effective rise
.
Upstream raw materials short-term decline, suppressing chemical prices, fundamental PVC inventory in the domestic demand off-season, downstream enthusiasm for procurement is not high, and the high operating rate of the device under the influence, inventory rose month-on-month, downstream pre-holiday stocking willingness is not high, coupled with January source delivery and basis discount, futures prices fell back to repair the
basis.
It is expected that the short-term domestic PVC market will be stabilized, the upward rush of PVC prices will be blocked, and there is a technical demand
for a pullback.