Analysis of domestic PVC market this week (11.20-11.24)

The reasons for the increase in prices in the PVC market this week are analyzed as follows:

On a macro front, this week, the total number of existing home sales in the United States in October reached an annualized 5.
48 million, a four-month high, better than the expected 5.
4 million units; Total existing home sales in October were 2% annualized versus 0.
2%
expected.
This indicates that demand in the U.
S.
housing market has stabilized
further as the impact of the hurricane has receded.
Domestically, China's total retail sales of consumer goods in October were 10% year-on-year, 10.
5% expected, and 10.
3% in the previous month; Total retail sales of consumer goods from January to October were 10.
3% year-on-year, and 10.
4%
were expected.
The added value of industries above designated size in October was 6.
2% year-on-year, and 6.
3%
was expected.

In the upstream market, the current supply of calcium carbide market is relatively stable, and the shipment price is stable and falling
.
Therefore, it is expected that the calcium carbide market will be dominated by wait-and-see next week, and the market expectations in the later period are not optimistic
.
ethylene CFR Northeast Asia 1300, up 5; CFR Southeast Asia was trading at $1160/mt, up 5
%.

Spot market: The price of some domestic PVC spot market has risen.

North China calcium carbide law reported 6160 yuan / ton, flat; ethylene law reported 6530 yuan / ton, up 80; East China calcium carbide method reported 6140 yuan / ton, up 40, ethylene method 6750 yuan / ton, up 50; South China calcium carbide method 6180, up 30, ethylene method 6720, flat
.
The price of raw materials was flat, East China reported 3300 yuan, flat, and Northwest reported 3470 yuan, flat
.

In terms of supply, most of the domestic PVC enterprises have completed maintenance in winter
.
At present, the installation of domestic PVC terminal products enterprises has remained low, mainly because of the increase in environmental protection supervision, and product enterprises based on small family-type workshops have been severely hit
.
Therefore, it is expected that the start of terminal products enterprises next week will remain weak
.

Future market forecast: This week, the trend of the PVC physical market is volatile and upward
.
Short-term upstream coal and crude oil prices are firm, PVC cost support is strong, coupled with the increase in winter transportation costs in the north, the arrival of goods in the main sales area is unstable, downstream bargain replenishment, PVC futures prices over-fell rebound, but in the demand off-season is expected to have limited
upside.
From the perspective of the future market, the PVC market is difficult to find, and the industry is pessimistic
.
There is a high probability that the futures market will make a new low in the futures market, and it will
continue to be weak.