Analysis of several problems concerned by domestic oil processing trade enterprises

Introduction: with regard to the domestic oil market, the businessmen are most concerned about the market trend and opportunities in the later period The author, as an operator in the industry, gives some opinions on the characteristics of the domestic oil market at present The author believes that at present, there is a huge demand for oil market in China, and there is an unreasonable price comparison between the main varieties Some varieties also have the problems of import price hanging upside down and abnormal price difference in domestic areas It is worth our in-depth study and find market opportunities China's oil market has a huge demand space There are many different versions of forecast figures about the domestic oil market demand (that is, the annual consumption of vegetable oil per capita) Based on many years of practical experience, the author thinks that some figures are of little practical significance However, we can use the more accurate customs statistics as a reference to compare and find the consumption quantity of the main oil varieties in China First, the consumption capacity of soybean oil market in China is huge Taking the actual import situation in 2004 as a reference, we can see some problems In 2004, China imported 20.3 million tons of soybeans and 2.52 million tons of crude soybean oil Based on 5 million tons of domestic soybeans, 6.87 million tons of soybean oil can be produced If the inventory carried forward at the beginning of the year and the surplus inventory at the end of the year are regarded as equal, it can be basically recognized that the consumption of domestic soybean oil in that year is about 6.87 million tons, and the average monthly consumption of the whole country is about 570000 tons According to this, we can infer that even in the off-season, the demand of domestic soybean oil will maintain a high level of about 550000 tons per month Second, in terms of the actual import volume last year, China's palm oil demand has also increased significantly According to customs statistics, China imported 3.86 million tons of palm oil in 2004, an increase of 16% year on year Although there was a large pressure on palm oil depots at the end of the year, it would be difficult to achieve this large scale of import without a huge market as support Third, in recent years, the increase of soybean oil demand is directly related to the increase of industrial oil consumption, and the other main reason is the increase of high-quality salad oil demand Because in our country, the main variety of high-grade salad oil is soybean salad oil, which is the result of the improvement of the living standard of the residents Since this year, the number of soybean oil imports in China has declined year on year According to the statistics of the customs, from January to February 2005, the cumulative import of soybean oil in China was 320000 tons, down 41% year on year With an average monthly import volume of 160000 tons, considering the fact that domestic small and medium-sized enterprises are under construction, we will find that a large part of the soybean oil supply in the domestic spot market from January to march is consuming the carry over inventory at the end of last year, that is to say, reducing the actual supply pressure in the future market In recent years, especially after the Spring Festival, the signing cost of imported crude soybean oil has been rising, and the number of domestic crude soybean oil import signing has also declined simultaneously According to the latest quotation of imported crude soybean oil, the cost of imported crude soybean oil in May is about $550 / ton, and the comprehensive cost (excluding quota) is about 5700 / ton However, the domestic market price is still the same The import is obviously unprofitable, and even there is a price hanging upside down The contract signing decline is also a normal market reaction As of March 2005, the traders who had been very active in crude soybean oil import had not made much progress this year According to the statistics of the author, at present, the soybean oil inventory of all ports in China is about 250000 tons If the import volume of crude soybean oil is maintained at 150000 tons per month in the later period, it will not take long for the supply of domestic soybean oil to have problems, and the inventory pressure will be substantially reduced The reason is very simple If the domestic monthly soybean oil import volume is maintained at 150000 tons, 2.35 million tons of soybeans need to be squeezed every month to meet the domestic soybean oil market demand Under the current market conditions, it should be difficult to achieve this scale (China's statistical crushing capacity is 70 million tons per year, among which there are not many factories that can actually be started, let alone some large enterprises have encountered serious problems this year.) In recent years, the domestic soybean oil prices have shown a pattern of high in the South and low in the north Looking back on the situation in recent years, we will find that the soybean oil prices in the four provinces in the Northeast are higher than those in the mainland, and many of the soybean oil in the customs are sold outside the customs However, this year's situation is different, with some abnormal changes In recent years, the price of soybean oil in the customs is higher than that outside the customs The lowest price of the second grade soybean oil in Heilongjiang local oil factory is 5300 yuan / ton, which is 400 yuan / ton lower than the price of the imported crude soybean oil in the coastal area One of the main reasons for such a market situation is the soaring price of soybean meal The crushing profit of northeast oil plant is huge (the highest ex factory price of soybean meal of northeast oil plant rises to 2700 yuan / ton, which is equivalent to the price of soybean purchased by oil plant) Under the operation idea of actively realizing profit, the oil plant will not hesitate to lower the price of soybean oil Of course, after the painful lessons of last year, the idea of putting the oil factory in the bag for safety is not the best policy Soybean oil accounts for a higher proportion in the consumption of oil market in China The oil consumption market in China is huge, and a large number of imports are needed every year to make up the domestic market gap Among all the imported and consumed varieties, soybean oil is a big item, followed by palm oil Especially after the temperature rises, all kinds of oil sold in the market are directly or indirectly linked with soybean oil through blending The price comparison between different oil varieties, especially with soybean oil varieties, has become the most noticeable issue for some businesses At present, the price of soybean oil in China is about 5700 yuan / ton, and the cost of imported crude soybean oil in the later stage is basically at this level, while the price of cottonseed oil is only about 5000 yuan / ton, with a difference of 700 yuan / ton According to the author's experience for many years, it is considered that this year should be the year with high price difference, which is worthy of attention To put it another way, if the price of soybean oil in May can be stabilized at more than 5500 yuan / ton, there will be no operational risk for cottonseed oil As for palm oil, the current price in North China is about 4750 yuan / ton, 250 yuan / ton different from cottonseed oil and 1000 yuan / ton different from port soybean oil Compared with the former, the price difference of this price is small, while compared with the latter, the price difference is high (not very high) In addition, the import of palm oil mainly comes from Malaysia, with short transportation distance, fast transportation speed, close relationship between price changes and external market, which determines that palm oil has become a very sensitive variety worthy of attention In a word, although the domestic oil market demand is weak at present, the domestic oil supply is relatively sufficient, and the oil market is still in a weak position on the whole However, due to the strong dependence of the oil market and the huge market demand, some business opportunities have been brewing As long as we pay attention to the changes in the international market and contact the domestic abnormal variety price comparison, we will get business opportunities.