Analysis of soybean trend in Dalian in the near future and Its Enlightenment to oil enterprises

Influenced by the grain working conference of the State Council, Dalian soybean futures rose sharply on August 28, peaking on September 4, with an increase of about 300 points This wave of market trend is sudden and strong, which is beyond most people's expectation With the power of lightning, many parties launched a deadly attack on the air side This market has the following characteristics: before the launch of the market: the market news surface is relatively calm, the fundamentals are conducive to short positions, the technical side deviates from the appearance, the bull repeatedly copied the bottom and repeatedly been covered, and each contract steadily expands its position Futures prices have repeatedly hit new lows, while market participants are also looking forward to a rebound During the operation of the market: all kinds of rumors are flying, bullies have no fear, bears are losing day by day, the spot market and the futures market are linked, the emergence of active buying and closing makes the futures price higher and higher Most of the retail investors who have been short for a long time have been in short positions, and some of the main short positions have also been hit a lot The profit of short for half a year has been recovered by the bull for several days As Dalian soybean has never seen such a trend in its history, investors who are rational in their operation have been greatly hit After the end of the market: some rumors have been confirmed that the market is slowly regaining its sanity, the long-term confidence is still firm, new space intervenes and gradually increases its positions, and the long-term differences increase Forward contract S5 has a maximum of 260000 short market volume Although the market shows that the long funds are dominant, the fundamentals are not conducive to the long market, and domestic new beans are successively on the market In the near future, the trend of soybean is relatively dull, and the short position is deterred by the capital strength of the long position, and the long position begins to face the fundamentals that are not conducive to itself Generally speaking, the current long capital advantage makes it temporarily occupy the initiative of the market, and the short bears a lot of psychological pressure under the more favorable fundamentals 11 holiday is around the corner, how to deduce the market before and after the holiday has become the concern of many investors Let's take a look at the fundamentals 2、 Market fundamentals are international The U.S Department of Agriculture reported a lower unit yield in September, from 40.7 bushels per acre to 39.5 bushels per acre, and from 29.9 to 2.9 billion bushels However, market participants believe that since mid August, the western and southern areas of the soybean growing belt in the United States have suffered from severe drought, which was not reflected in the September report in time, so it is possible to continue to reduce the yield in the October report Moreover, soybean crush profits have been boosted by strong soybean meal prices and strong demand for soybean meal and oil exports The squeezing profit of American soybean has reached the highest level since 1998 After a slight decline in the previous period, the squeezing profit has increased in the near future All these factors support the price formation of CBOT soybean However, we can see clearly from the historical chart of American soybean: the per unit yield of soybean is next to 41.4 bushels / acre in 1994, and the total yield has reached a new record; although the demand has increased year by year, the inventory is still high; the price fluctuates between 430-580 cents / bushel, and there is no sign of ending in a short period Especially around the 11th, the United States and China have entered the soybean harvesting and marketing period at the same time, CBOT soybean will also face some spot pressure In addition, soybean cultivation in South America is approaching, and it is estimated that the US market will still maintain the pattern of interval fluctuation Domestic Since 2000, affected by the reduction of domestic soybean production and the recovery of feed market, the spot price of soybean meal has risen strongly, reaching about 2500 yuan / ton in the middle of May this year, and the oil factory has gained an excess squeeze profit of nearly 500 yuan / ton The huge profits make the import of oil plants and traders blind Nearly 1 million tons of soybeans are set at a higher price (cnf225 USD / ton) In this way, China imported nearly 9 million tons of soybeans in the year of 1999-00 In addition to the domestic production of 14.25 million tons and domestic inventory, the total supply reached 24 million tons Among them, about 8 million tons of edible soybeans and 14 million tons of soybeans are used for crushing, which makes the supply of soybean meal reach 12 million tons Although the demand for soybean meal in China is about 10 million tons, the potential oversupply in the market is ignored in the speculative atmosphere At the beginning of June this year, with the exemption of soybean meal import value-added tax from the State Administration of Taxation (although it was soon denied by the State Council) as the fuse, Dalian soybean futures took the lead in plummeting, and then the spot market linkage pushed the prices of soybean and its products down wave by wave Taking Shandong as an example, the lowest selling price of imported soybeans is 2050 yuan / ton (the cost price is 2260 yuan / ton), and the lowest ex factory price of soybean meal in the oil factory is 1750 yuan / ton, and the decline of soybean oil price is more obvious Since the "8.28" incident, although the price of soybean and its products has shown a short-term rise, but under the pressure that a large number of new beans are about to go on the market in China, they will soon be put back in place At present, the price of imported soybeans in Shandong Province is about 2080 yuan / ton, the price of domestic new soybeans is 1940 yuan / ton, the factory price of soybean meal is 1800 yuan / ton, and the soybean oil is greatly reduced to 4700 yuan / ton (grade II) affected by the import quota The US Senate passed the PNTR to China, which makes it possible for China to join the WTO before the end of the year At that time, with the increase of soybean oil and palm oil quotas, it is only a matter of time before the price of secondary soybean oil drops to 4500 yuan / ton By the end of 2000, the crushing capacity of soybean in Shandong, Dalian, Heilongjiang and Guangdong will reach 20000, 7000, 6000 and 7000 tons / day respectively Therefore, the downturn of spot price will continue, and there is no reason for recovery in the short term After defining the fundamentals of the market, what is the price trend of the future market? 3、 Future price trend forecast CBOT soybean American soybeans are in the early stage of harvest, and there is a threat of early frost for new soybeans, and the available supply of spot soybeans is gradually increasing; the price above cnf210 is less attractive to foreign businesses, and the export sales volume of soybeans in the near future is reduced; the soybean planting area in the coming South America is still uncertain, but the export of soybeans in South America increased in 1999-00 Analysts predict that the soybean planting area in 00-01 will still increase Expansion; historical trends show that prices have been falling for a long time during the harvest All of these factors led to the sbcx11 soybean contract at 500 cents / bushel uncertain Considering that China's imports of soybeans in 1999-00 impressed American soybeans producers, the rapid expansion of China's crushing capacity and China's accession to the WTO, etc., although the output of American soybeans reached a new record, the optimistic expectation of the corresponding increase in demand supported the price of CBOT soybeans At present, before the end of December this year, the CBOT soybean trend has the following possibilities: 1 The price rises sharply At present, the market mainly focuses on the unit yield and yield in October In this case, the USDA's forecast on the unit yield and yield of soybeans in the United States can't be significantly lowered any more, so the probability of CBOT soybeans soaring is quite low, and this trend is extremely unlikely 2 The price fell sharply Unless South America announces a significant increase in soybean acreage, or high futures prices deter foreign importers, or there is a serious imbalance between supply and demand 3 The price fluctuates in the 450-600 cent / bushel range and does not make a new low In the near future, the balanced market supply and demand relationship limits the low part and height of this range There is a high probability of this trend DCE soybeans At present, the signs of capital market are quite obvious, and the bulls have an advantage in trading by virtue of their capital strength But for soybean, a big international variety, "potential" is unstoppable Only by following the trend can we always be in an invincible position in the market The difficulty of long-term market manipulation can be imagined Under the condition that the current domestic new beans are going to be listed in large quantities, unless there is potential favorable news support and US market cooperation, it is unlikely to pull up substantially How about a big drop? It is also very small, and the bulls have not yet left If there is no huge bad news, it is not easy to fall too deep Dalian soybean trend will also enter a concussion pattern, first up and then down the range, in order to benefit the long smooth shipment It can be considered that the price of soybean will not be very long in the case that the imported soybean has not been digested in the near future and a large number of new beans have been listed In the case of relatively calm fundamentals and news, the technical aspects and the number of recently imported soybeans in China have become the focus of the market Technically, taking S5 as an example, zhouk line stands at 50 and moves to 80 area, while the daily K line is passivated at high level, both of which deviate from each other The technical chart shows that the historical low point of Dalian soybean has been achieved and it has successfully broken away from the low point However, in the short term, Dalian soybean faces the pressure of adjustment If the time is taken, the trend of soybean in the future will mainly fluctuate and rise How does this trend affect the operation of domestic oil enterprises? Let's first look at the development trend of oil enterprises 4、 The development trend of oil enterprises is that domestic soybeans are discarded for consumption and reserve, and the remaining is only enough for the processing capacity of domestic oil enterprises for 4 months, and the other 8 months mainly depend on imported soybeans At present, the provinces and regions that mainly use imported soybeans are: Shandong (nearly half of the total import), Dalian (1 / 3 of the total import) and Guangdong Influenced by the geographical location and the demand of each province for feed, and guided by the market supply and demand, China's oil and fat enterprises started a epoch-making change in 1998 At present, the squeezing pattern of soybean has evolved into: 1 With Shandong, Dalian and Heilongjiang as the main industries, Guangdong and Guangxi as the auxiliary industries, the squeezing capacity of individual enterprises is increasing, and the overall squeezing capacity is slightly surplus The rapid development of oil processing enterprises in Guangdong and Guangxi has become a bright spot in the industry, while some oil plants in Shandong, Heilongjiang and Dalian (small scale, poor location, high cost) will soon face bankruptcy or merger At the end of 2000, the new supercharging capacity of Shandong and Guangdong reached 6000 and 5000 tons / day respectively The arrival of expansion climax means the beginning of bankruptcy 2 With the increasingly fierce competition, the oil enterprises as a whole have entered the era of low profit The expansion of the crushing capacity of single enterprise (such as Dalian Huanong: 3500 tons / day, Shandong Sanwei: 2400 tons / day, Bohai Oil: 2900 tons / day, etc.) has closed the development space of small and medium-sized oil plants (400 tons / day), and also made the profits of oil enterprises significantly diluted This will directly lead to this situation in the soybean market in 2000, that is, the price of soybean will not be too low, and the price of soybean meal and soybean oil will not be too high In this sense, the completion of new processing capacity in Shandong and Guangdong will mark the beginning of the era of low profit for oil enterprises In the face of this new and competitive market pattern, domestic oil companies should change their operation mechanism, renew their operation concept and grasp the market with a qualitative leap The market demand is huge and the opportunity is equal It depends on the comprehensive level of oil enterprises whether they can grasp it correctly Specifically, oil companies need to do the following work: 1 Information is wealth, we should deeply understand the importance of market information Market information changes rapidly and fleetingly Those who get it will prosper, while those who don't will decline An information department should be set up within the enterprise to collect, sort out and study market information extensively, seize every market opportunity and win the initiative for the enterprise 2 In depth understanding and