Analysis of the economic health of China's building materials industry in the first three quarters of 2016.

The building materials industry is showing an overall stabilization trend, the performance of which is that demand remains stable, especially the project release effect on cement and other pull obvious; However, the prices of cement and other major products are still low year-on-year, the economic benefits of the whole industry have not yet emerged from the downturn, the overall stability of the building materials industry and the foundation is still relatively fragile.
, the first three quarters of the building materials industry economic performance
First, the industry to maintain a stable growth trend, but the growth rate narrowed, downward pressure is still prominent.
In September by the building materials traditional market "peak season", industry self-discipline effectiveness and the recent national investment project approval has accelerated and other factors, in September the size of the building materials industry value added increased by 5.8% YoY, up 0.1 percentage points from August, this is the first time this year after the growth rate of building materials continued to decline. From January to September, the value added of building materials industry above the scale increased by 6.7% YoY, and the cumulative yoY growth rate of the building materials industry narrowed further after June.
second is cement, flat glass production to maintain growth.
Due to demand and industry self-discipline, the growth rate of cement production in China has slowed since the second half of this year, but with the arrival of the peak market season, the recovery in cement prices and the release of production capacity after the G20 meeting, the year-on-year growth rate of output in September rebounded to 2.9%, with the cumulative national cement production reaching 1.76 billion tons in the first three quarters, up 2.6% YoY. Contrary to the cement situation, since June, the national flat glass production and sales in the price increase factors, the trend of accelerating the recovery in September continued, the month of September production growth rate further accelerated, the cumulative national flat glass production will reach 580 million weight boxes, up 4.1% YoY.
third is that investment in the building materials industry continues to decline.
Not only cement, flat glass and other traditional surplus industries, but also concrete and cement products, wall materials and other processing products industry investment has also declined, will affect the transformation and upgrading of building materials and development potential, especially the building materials industry 90% of investment comes from the private sector, non-state-owned investment decline, but also shows that the confidence of private capital building materials is still insufficient.
fourth is the resertative growth of economic benefits.
Cement glass and other products price recovery impact, the total profit of building materials above the scale from the beginning of the year negative growth to positive growth, the first three quarters reached 223.2 billion yuan, an increase of 9.7%, August cement profit growth from negative to positive, the first three quarters of total profits of 24.9 billion yuan, up 33.7% YoY, flat glass since March, the industry turned a profit, the first three quarters of total profits of 4 billion yuan. Although the economic benefits of building materials and cement and flat glass have increased, they are still well below the level of the same period last year and are still in the resuscive stage after the decline in benefits since last year.
fifth is the price of building materials products to maintain a rebound month-on-month. The average factory price of building materials products rebounded 0.7% month-on-month in September, narrowing the year-on-year decline to 0.1%, and the average decline in the third quarter narrowed to 2.6% from 4.5% at the beginning of the year. The national average price of cement continued to rise by 2.9% month-on-month in September, up 20 yuan, or 7.4%, from its February low, but the average price in January-September was still 6.8% lower than a year earlier. Construction glass prices rebounded from February bottoming, as of the end of September, the weight of the box rebounded 9 yuan, an increase of more than 15.8%, but from the end of September to the beginning of October, the factory price of construction glass has shown signs of falling, the average price of glass per weight box fell by about 2 yuan.
, positive changes in the development of the building materials industry
. 1. Building materials industry "to production capacity, adjust the structure" has become the industry consensus.
government, industry, enterprises to form a joint force, in the market demand has not changed significantly, the building materials industry has achieved a good start of steady growth. In 2015, cement production showed its first negative growth in 25 years, the wrong peak production, active shutdown, etc. became the norm, enterprises from negative treatment, vicious competition gradually began to take the initiative to respond to, actively participate. Flat glass accelerates product upgrading, glass deep processing rate, product added value has been improved to ease market pressure. As of July 2016, there were 352 float glass production lines in China, of which 124 were cold repair and discontinued production lines, with a production capacity of 361 million weight boxes.
2. Merger and reorganization, the market pattern accelerated reconstruction.
2016 building materials industry enterprise mergers and reorganization operations frequently, Jinxuan, Yandong at the end of May through the capital market to achieve joint restructuring, Lafarge China, Huaxin Cement completed integration, China Resources, Kungang Jiahua strategic reorganization, China Building Materials, China Materials two building materials central enterprises merged, the above makes the cement industry industrial concentration increased by 5 percentage points, the national cement market re-layout, the market environment improved. Taking the merger between Jinxuan and Yandong as an example, since the signing of the restructuring agreement in May, the environment of the cement market in North China has improved rapidly, with Yandong Cement losing more than 1.7 billion yuan last year and operating profit decreasing by 2 billion yuan year-on-year in September this year, of which operating profit in the third quarter increased by about 600 million yuan month-on-month, an increase of about 900 million yuan year-on-year.
3. Wrong peak production is fully implemented, the effect is obvious.
In 2016, 487 cement enterprises in 15 northern provinces and autonomous regions accounted for 94% of the total number of enterprises carried out winter wrong peak production operations, 688 cedhuring production lines stopped kilns, accounting for 91% of the total cedhur production line, a total reduction of cedhur production of 160 million tons, reduce cedary inventory of 120 million tons, reduce capital occupation of about 18 billion yuan, effectively adjust the market supply and demand relationship, alleviate the loss of enterprises in the northern region. This year, the production of wrong peak will be further pushed away, from seasonal wrong peak production to seasonal, environmental protection wrong peak production to push away.
4. Standards, policies and other measures in a multi-pronged manner, to promote the production capacity to be implemented.
recently, the standard revision of 32.5 composite silicate cement has been completed and reported to the National Standards Commission for approval. When formally implemented, this standard will lead to the withdrawal of 32.5 composite silicate cement, which accounts for about 50% of the total cement, from the market, and is expected to reduce cement production by about 200 million tons. Up to now, most provinces and cities in the country have put forward concrete, glass and other specific indicators and measures for the production capacity from the perspective of eliminating backwardness, supply-side reform, adjusting structure, investment approval, etc., and the implementation efficiency and effect of the policy will be enhanced and apparent.
, the current building materials industry economic operation of the main
. 1. Fixed investment in the building materials industry continues to decline, lack of investment confidence, has affected the processing products industry and other industries transformation and upgrading progress.
2. Cement glass enterprise loan credit line decreased, tightening obviously, the phenomenon of loan extraction is very common, seriously interfere with the normal operation of enterprises.
3. Since the beginning of this year, coal prices have risen rapidly, has risen by 160 yuan per ton, an increase of 32%, resulting in an increase in the national cement production costs of about 13 yuan per ton, accounting for more than 80% of the increase in cement factory prices so far this year.
4. Glass production rebounded too strongly and prices are at risk of falling again. Glass sales have rebounded this year and inventories have declined, but the current flat glass inventory is still a month and five days of production, 75 million weight boxes. Stimulated by rising prices, sales of flat glass rose sharply across the country in the third quarter. Flat glass production and sales were out of control in the second four months of the year, and under pressure from huge inventories and excess capacity, flat glass prices are likely to fall again in the fourth quarter, and prices have fallen again in mid-October after a brief decline in mid-September.
, fourth quarter and next year, the construction materials industry's economic operation situation is expected to
. 1. The macro market environment is basically stable, the national investment growth rate stops falling flat, investment projects accelerate the release, the direct pull role still exists, to ensure that the building materials industry in the fourth quarter of the traditional market season is still strong to provide support, support the building materials industry external environment is stable.
2. Supply-side structural contradictions restrict the quality of the industry's operation to rebound. At present, the main problem affecting the quality of building materials economy is not the growth rate of output and sales volume, but the depressed product prices and the economic benefits of the continuous decline. Under the pressure of weak demand and excess capacity, this year's building materials regulation profits returned to growth at last year's low level, but it is unlikely to return to the normal levels of the previous year.
price recovery in the second half of the year will not fully affect the full-year benefits. Although cement and other prices rebounded in the second half of the year, production and sales growth continued to decline, and rising coal consumption costs have eaten up more than 80% of the increase in cement factory prices so far this year.
building materials industry in the fourth quarter and early next year will be expected to achieve steady growth targets. This year's annual value-added growth rate of the building materials industry is expected to be around 7%, the annual cement production recovery exceeded last year's level, but lower than the previous year's level, the annual growth rate of 2.4%, flat glass production will reach an annual growth rate of 3%. Affected by the continuous decline in fixed asset investment in the building materials industry and other factors, the growth rate of building materials next year will probably be lower than the average growth rate of industry, in a low-speed growth stage.