Analysis of the market trend of natural rubber standard rubber in September

The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, at the beginning of the month, the overall weakness of the US dollar index, Trump's tax reform policy showed positive signals, triggered the market's speculation about the Fed's interest rate hike this year, and the US index was boosted to stand on the $92 line
.
Domestically, data released by the central bank showed that the balance of broad money (M2) at the end of August was 164.
52 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.
9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was a new low
in nearly 20 months.
At the end of the month, the US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 33,000 in September, the first decline since 2010, and the unemployment rate continued to fall to 4.
2%.

The previous market consensus was expected to increase by 80,000 people, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.
4%; In September, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 52.
4%, rising for two consecutive months to reach its highest point since May 2012, up 0.
7 percentage points month-on-month and 2.
0 percentage points
year-on-year.

Second, in terms of market, the quotation of 16 whole milk in Shanghai market is 12150-12250 yuan / ton; Vietnam's 3L quotation is 12800-12900 yuan / ton; 16 years Thailand No.
3 tobacco flakes 14600-15000 yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 50.
02-50.
9 baht/kg; Tai San tobacco tablets 53.
98-53.
99 baht/kg; field glue 50 baht/kg; Cup glue 42.
5-43 baht/kg
.

As of September 19, 2017, the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline to 187,200 tons, down 16,100 tons from the beginning of September, the overall decline was about 7.
92%, the main reason for the decline in this period was the obvious decline in natural rubber stocks
.
Among them, natural rubber was 130,200 tons, down 19,400 tons, or 12.
97%,
from early September.

Fourth, in terms of demand, the operating rate of tire companies in 2017 has always been at a low level, and it is difficult to make a big difference
.
The operating rate of domestic all-steel tires and semi-steel tires continued to decline
year-on-year.
By the end of September, the operating rate of all-steel tires was 62.
47, up 8.
68% month-on-month and down 8.
4% year-on-year; The operating rate of semi-steel tires was 65.
61, down 0.
17% month-on-month and 8.
88% year-on-year; Although some manufacturers of some tire factories launched the second price increase policy within the month due to factors such as the rise in the price of auxiliary materials and the lifting of environmental protection, the overall demand was still weak; The replacement market for semi-steel tires is relatively light, and the inventory pressure of some manufacturers is slightly greater
.
Downstream consumption of natural rubber is restricted
.

V.
Future market forecast: The preliminary forecast of this website analysis shows that at present, the price of tianjiao continues to decline, and the range is still large; At present, it is the peak season of rubber production and the inventory of natural rubber is high, and the procurement demand of downstream enterprises shows part when the rubber price falls, but there is no major change in the supply and demand structure overall; The tripartite meeting in September did not reach a resolution to restrict exports, which crushed the market's earlier expectations, and the market short-selling sentiment was obvious under the role of funds; Futures spreads narrowed, a large number of futures arbitrageurs sold spot, and the pressure on the spot supply market was huge
.
The analysis believes that the supporting role of supply and demand contradiction is not strong, and it is difficult to make great changes in the future market; Tianjiao has recently continued to decline, the magnitude is large, it is expected that the short-term continuation of a sharp decline is unlikely, a small shock trend is dominant; In the long run, it is still necessary to look at the fundamental changes
in the structure of supply and demand.