Analysis of the recent trend of glycol futures.

Some time ago, with the help of international crude oil strength and futures for the month of buy support, ethylene glycol 01 contract once rushed to the 4000 yuan mark.
but the market short momentum increased at the high level of glycol, the period price quickly retreat correction.
first of all, we analyze the long-short logic from the fundamentals: long-term thinking: 1, spot delivery logic under the port cargo liquidity increased, port inventory has a certain go to the warehouse expectations.
2, the current comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol is 55.74 percent, coal production is 35.19 percent.
coal plant is still in a large-scale shutdown state, glycol plant operating load is at a low level.
3, downstream polyester demand season is approaching, and terminal weaving orders have improved, supporting polyester operating load to maintain a high level.
supply and demand pattern of ethylene glycol is improving.
short thinking: 1, overseas outbreaks have not seen signs of easing, macro-level uncertainty, so that the market is worried.
2nd and 3nd quarters are facing the pressure of new production capacity to concentrate on driving, many glycol enterprises take advantage of the golden nine silver ten peak season production, and the insensitivity of the new device to costs will also increase the market supply pressure.
3, the current port inventory is still more than 1.3 million tons, inventory inflection point has not yet appeared, high inventory on the market price suppression is difficult to ignore.
combined with technical analysis: 01 contract high fell after the volume has shrunk, MACD indicator tends to bond smooth.
both sides are facing further fundamental changes and news shocks.
short-term market remained in the 3860-3950 range.
and from the 25th position, long position 122521 lots, short positions 142806 lots, short-term or short positions occupy the advantage.
is recommended for shorting near 3750.
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