Analysis of the trend of the national average price of PVC in 2017

In 2017, the price of PVC futures fluctuated greatly, and the overall trend showed a wide range of
fluctuations.

At the beginning of the new year, PVC futures ushered in a small rebound, with prices approaching 6,500 in mid-February, mainly supported by the concentrated stockpiling of companies before the holiday and the repair of the price plunge at the
end of 2016.
The price of PVC is high, the profitability of the enterprise is better, the routine maintenance of the plant in spring is not concentrated, and the operating load remains high
.
However, the recovery of downstream demand has been sluggish, resulting in a large accumulation of social stocks, reaching the highest level
in the past two years.

In late April, it hit a new low for the year, and the price of PVC futures fell endlessly, falling below the production cost line
.
April to September is the destocking stage, and in May, the number of shutdown maintenance equipment increased, and PVC production was reduced
.
With the entry of the environmental protection supervision team, the calcium carbide furnace stopped, and the rapid decline in the supply caused the price of calcium carbide to continue to rise, providing certain cost support
for PVC.
PVC supply is tight, enterprise pre-sales are better, inventory pressure eases and falls back to a lower level, PVC futures stop falling and stabilize, and the center of gravity gradually recovers
.

At the end of June, PVC broke to the upside, and prices continued to rise, updating the year's high to 7500
.
In 2017, the alumina, chemical fiber and paper industries performed well, and the demand for caustic soda increased significantly, resulting in chlor-alkali integrated enterprises maintaining high-load operation, and the overall operating rate of PVC was higher than the same period last year
.

Entering September, PVC opened a downward channel, sliding from around 7500 points
.
Gold nine silver ten, demand falsification, PVC center of gravity pullback to 6300 support hovering around the finishing
.

Since October, the trend of PVC has been weak, downstream demand has slowed down, social inventory accumulation has risen, and futures prices may fall further, but the space below is limited
.
In the fourth quarter, PVC demand is difficult to improve, and the spot trend is not optimistic
.
Led by the plunge in futures prices, spot prices also followed lower, sliding to around
6700.

In 2017, PVC prices were affected by environmental protection supervision, safety production inspection and other factors, and downstream pipe and profile factories were restricted
.
Real estate regulation and control have been increased, consumer loans have been strictly investigated, sales restrictions have been upgraded and expanded, purchase restrictions and price restrictions have not been relaxed, the property market has continued to cool down, and PVC terminal demand is in a tepid state
.