Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (4.3-4.7)

The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, this week, the US non-farm payrolls changed by 98,000 in March, 180,000 expected, and 235,000
in the previous month.
The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in March was far less than expected, and the dollar index plunged, down 0.
2% percentage points from its high; In the domestic market, the recently released purchasing managers' index (PMI) showed that the Caixin China Composite Output Index fell 0.
5 percentage points in March from February to 52.
1, and the growth rate of overall economic activity slowed to the lowest level
in nearly half a year.
At present, the price of tianjiao is not supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have fluctuated and declined
.

Second, in terms of market, in the Shanghai market, Yunnan's 15-year full latex quotation was about 14,700 yuan / ton, down 700 yuan / ton; In the Shandong market, Yunnan's 15-year full latex quotation was about 14,700 yuan / ton, down 800 yuan / ton; Hengshui market, the 15-year state-owned whole milk tax-free quotation was about 14,200 yuan / ton, down 800 yuan / ton; In the Yunnan market, the quotation of Yunxiang full latex in 16 years was about 15,500 yuan / ton, down 800 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, as of April 7, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to rise to 197,900 tons, up 10,900 tons, or 5.
83%,
from 187,000 tons in mid-March.
At present, rubber stocks in the previous period and Qingdao Free Trade Zone are increasing, putting pressure
on the price of rubber.
While rubber prices fall, inventories rise, in a passive state of inventory increase
.

Fourth, in terms of demand, as of April 7, at present, due to the pressure of finished product inventory and poor demand, the operating rate of tire factories that have maintained a high level for the past year has begun to decline
.
At present, the operating rate of semi-steel tires is 73.
34%, and the operating rate of all-steel tires is 69.
24%, a slight decrease from last week, but it is expected to maintain a downward trend in the coming period until downstream demand improves
.
Therefore, the market has less transaction and weak support for the price
.

Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
This week, the spot shipment price of natural rubber inverted costs, and the market replenishment demand generally chose not to buy and fall.

Recently, affected by environmental protection, artificial production control and other reasons, since mid-to-late March, the start of domestic tire companies has declined, many tire companies in March reported that the situation of goods is not good, last month's replacement market sales volume significantly reduced month-on-month, some non-three-pack tire companies even issued price decline notices
.
At present, the pressure of tire social inventory is high, and the enthusiasm of short-term dealers to take goods may be limited
.
The growth rate of the manufacturing industry slowed down in March, and the probability of accelerating the expansion of the economy in the future is very low, and the economy may turn downward
in the second quarter.
The symbolic significance of Xiong'an New Area is greater than the substantive significance of China's economy, and it will take a long time for the policy to be implemented, and the current supply and demand relationship will not be reversed
immediately.
Tianjiao cutting season is coming, tire inventory pressure is high, the year-on-year growth rate of heavy truck sales is gradually declining, demand is expected to weaken, Shanghai rubber still has downward space, it is recommended to rebound and short thinking, do not blindly copy the bottom
.