Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (5.16-5.20)

The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, in the macro aspect, affected by the Fed's increased expectations of interest rate hikes, commodities, especially metals and industrial products, have come under obvious pressure; Domestically, the added value of China's industries above designated size increased by 6% year-on-year in April, less than the expected 6.
5%, down 0.
8 percentage points
from March.
At present, the price of tianjiao is not supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have fallen
slightly.

Second, in terms of the market, the 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk in Shanghai was about 10,450 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton; The 14-year state-owned whole milk tax-free price in Hengshui was about 10,100 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton; In Shandong, the 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk was about 10,450 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton; The 15-year total latex in Yunnan was about 11,000 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, as of May 20, the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 317467 tons, an increase of 3,698 tons, and the inventory continued to increase and hit a high level in recent years; The volume of futures warehouse receipts was 293,950 tons, an increase of 2,710 tons, and warehouse receipts still maintained a growth trend
.
The selling pressure in the futures market is greater, which limits the upside
of Shanghai rubber.

Fourth, in terms of demand, this week, the operating rate of all-steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 69.
27%, down 1.
07%; The operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises was 73.
24%, down 1.
43%.

From the confirmation of terminal export and sales data, it is difficult for the later operating rate to rise
.
The operating rate of the downstream tire market has declined, and the demand for upstream sky rubber has weakened, and the slight decline in demand has brought certain negative
benefits to rubber prices.

Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
From the perspective of comprehensive supply and demand, last week's domestic spot prices were dragged down by the futures price, and continued to fall sharply, the market sold off obviously, downstream factories purchased on demand, and the market transaction was light
.
At present, the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone is still declining, but the decline has narrowed
.
Downstream tire factories have been compressed due to the rise in raw material prices, and the operating rate of semi-steel tires has declined
.
The continuous light rain in domestic production areas has alleviated the drought, which is conducive to rubber tapping, and the price of domestic raw materials, especially in Yunnan production areas
, has fallen significantly.
The drought in Thailand has also eased, and the probability of a gradual increase in supply in the later period is higher
.
In the medium term, downstream consumption growth will slow down
.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern
in the short term.