Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (6.20-6.24)

The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

On the macro front, U.
S.
existing home sales totaled 5.
53 million annualized in May this week, the highest since February 2007 and the highest in more than nine years, with strong sales data painting a picture of an optimistic economic outlook
.
Domestically, the profits of China's industrial enterprises in May increased by 3.
7% year-on-year, although the growth rate fell slightly, but the efficiency of industrial enterprises continued to show positive changes
.
At present, the price of tianjiao has been supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have risen
slightly.

Second, in terms of the market, the price of state-owned full latex in Shanghai for 15 years was about 10,700 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton; The 15-year price of Yunnan state-owned full latex in Shandong was about 10,700 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton; The 14-year state-owned whole milk tax-free quotation in Hengshui was about 10,650 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton; The quotation of private full latex in Yunnan in 16 years was about 10,500 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, as of the week of June 24, the recent Qingdao Free Trade Zone rubber inventory declined, the inventory was 218,800 tons, down 5.
9% from the end of May, the stock of Shanghai futures Tianjiao increased by 7,984 tons to 328,200 tons, the inventory of the Tianjiao market is still at a historical high level, and the domestic Tianjiao market has gradually opened up recently, but the supply of Tianjiao has increased slowly, and the Tianjiao market has risen driven by the rise in futures prices
.

Fourth, in terms of demand, as of June 24, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire enterprises was 70%, and the operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises was 72.
5%, basically unchanged
from last week.
The operating rate of the downstream tire market is sluggish, the demand for upstream tianjiao has weakened, and the slight decline in demand has brought certain negative benefits to rubber prices, and the spot price of tianjiao is hovering
at a low level.

Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
At present, domestic economic recovery concerns have intensified, demand expectations have weakened, and the volatility of Shanghai rubber has intensified
due to the external environment.
The market expects that domestic and foreign policies will be introduced, which is worth looking forward to, and the impact of Brexit events is still fermenting
.
On the other hand, China's tire exports in May increased by 9% year-on-year and 16.
3% month-on-month
.
This is the third consecutive month of year-on-year growth
.
Demand is showing signs
of continued improvement.
Recently, market uncertainties have increased and volatility has intensified, it is recommended that investors choose a good entry point, follow the trend and go long, and pay attention to stop loss
.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern
in the short term.