Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (6.5-6.9)

The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

1.
On the macro front, data released by the Federal Reserve on the 7th showed that the growth rate of US consumer credit fell to the lowest level since August 2011 in April, indicating that the rebound in consumer spending in the second quarter may not be as strong
as expected.
Data showed that total consumer credit in the United States rose by $8.
2 billion to $3.
82 trillion in April, an annualized growth rate of 2.
6%.

The increase was down from $19.
5 billion in March and below economists' previous expectations
of $17 billion.

2.
In terms of market, the quotation of Yunnan natural rubber market is narrowly adjusted by 50-100 yuan / ton
.
The reference price of Yunxiang full latex in 17 years is 12300 yuan / ton, and the private full latex in 16 years is 12100-12200 yuan / ton; Private sub-standard one (5# glue) quotation of 12,000 yuan / ton; The quotation of private standard two (10# glue) is 11650-11700 yuan / ton; Vietnam's 3L quotation is 12200-12400 yuan / ton (13 taxes), 17 taxes Vietnam 3L glue is 13200 yuan / ton; T20# tire rubber quotation at 11900-12000 yuan / ton (17 taxes); Tai San tobacco tablets (13 taxes) are quoted at 14,500 yuan / ton
.
The market is weak, the price does not fluctuate much, the purchase gas is general, the price is for reference only, and the actual order is specifically negotiated
.

3.
In terms of inventory, as of the end of May 2017, the rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to rise to 276,000 tons, an increase of 08,200 tons, or 3.
06%,
from 267,800 tons in mid-May.
Among them, natural rubber was 215,900 tons, an increase of 9,100 tons, an increase of 4.
4%; synthetic rubber 55,800 tons, down 00,900 tons, a decrease of 1.
59%; The composite rubber held steady at 04,300 tons
.

4.
On the demand side, after the sales of heavy-duty trucks exceeded 100,000 units for two consecutive months in March and April, the sales of heavy-duty trucks fell slightly in May
.
According to statistics, in May 2017, a total of 93,000 models were sold in China's heavy-duty truck market, down 11%
from April (104,400 units).
The downstream tire industry has not improved much, the support is weak, and the backlog of finished tire inventory suggests that the rubber terminal demand has not really improved
.
The decline in tire prices has also weighed on
the market.

5.
Future market forecast: The preliminary forecast of this website analysis shows that Tianjiao is still in the stage of destocking, and the supply is still oversupply
.
Downstream demand has not been effectively stimulated, and the contradiction between rubber supply and demand is difficult to alleviate
in the near future.
It is expected that the spot quotation of Tianjiao will continue to decline next week
.