Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (7.11-7.15)

The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, this week, the Eurozone June CPI was 0.
1% year-on-year, better than the expectation
of 0.
0%.
Eurozone June core CPI came in at 0.
9% year-on-year, better than expectations
of 0.
8%.
Domestically, China's services PMI was 52.
7 in June, up 1.
5 from the previous month, ending a two-month streak of declines and hitting an 11-month high
.
At present, the price of tianjiao has been supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have risen
slightly.

Second, in terms of the market, the 14-year state-owned full latex in Shanghai was about 11,000 yuan / ton, up 450 yuan / ton; In Shandong, the 14-year Yunnan state-owned whole milk was about 11,000 yuan / ton, up 450 yuan / ton; The 14-year state-owned whole milk tax-free price in Hengshui area was about 10,500 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, and the 15-year private whole milk tax-free quotation was about 10,600 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton; Yunnan's 16-year private full latex quotation was about 11,100 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, as of the week of July 15, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell by 11% from the previous period to 194,400 tons, a decrease of 24,400 tons, a sharp increase
.
In terms of specific inventory varieties, the stocks of natural rubber and synthetic rubber declined, and the sky rubber decreased by 22,600 tons, down 13% in half a month; synthetic rubber decreased by 18,000 tons, down 5%; There is no change
in the composite glue.

4.
In terms of demand, as of July 15, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire enterprises was 73.
94%, up 2.
35% from last week; The operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises was 72.
5%, up 0.
38%
from last week.
The operating rate of the downstream tire market has risen, and the demand for upstream tianjiao has increased, and the slight decline in demand has brought certain benefits to rubber prices, and the spot price trend of tianjiao has risen
.

Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
At present, domestic economic recovery concerns have intensified, demand expectations have weakened, and the volatility of Shanghai rubber has intensified
due to the external environment.
From a fundamental point of view, the demand side of rubber has not seen a significant improvement, the supply is stable, and the strong rebound of the futures price is not caused by a real change in the relationship between supply and demand, but the result of a comprehensive rise in commodities, and the passive and rising situation of rubber will not change
.
Inventories in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline, and heavy-duty truck sales continued to increase sharply year-on-year in June, and China's tire exports rose 9%, indicating that downstream demand performance was acceptable
.
With the successive cutting of domestic rubber production areas, the supply of raw materials has increased, and the price of glue has fallen, but the raw materials in the production areas have not yet been released due to the weather in the early stage
.
Volatility has increased in recent days due to increased market uncertainty
.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern
in the short term.