Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (7.3-7.7)

The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

1.
On the macro front, the central bank has not carried out reverse repurchase operations for the 11th consecutive trading day, and 20 billion reverse repurchases will expire
in the open market today.
This week's net withdrawal was 250 billion
.
According to institutional analysis, the actual degree of capital easing in the near future far exceeds market expectations, mainly due to the large protection of the central bank in the early stage, the large amount of fiscal investment at the end of last month, the reduction of seasonal disturbance factors, and the improvement of foreign exchange accounts
.

2.
In terms of market, the spot quotation of natural rubber in Shandong is narrowly adjusted to 50-100 yuan / ton
.
The quotation of 15-year Sinochem whole milk is 12500 yuan / ton, the quotation of 15-year Baodao whole milk is 12550-12600 yuan / ton, the quotation of 15-year Jinfeng whole milk is 12650 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 15-year Yunxiang whole latex is 12700 yuan / ton; In 16 years, the quotation of Yunxiang and Baodao whole milk was 12800 yuan / ton; The quotation of standard two rubber is 12200-12300 yuan / ton; Vietnam's 3L reference quotation is 13100-13200 yuan / ton; Matai mixed quotation at 12450-12500 yuan / ton; In 15 years, Thailand Lianyi tobacco tablets reported 14900-15000 yuan / ton, 15 years Hongman Li tobacco tablets quoted 15000 yuan / ton, 17 years Lianyi tobacco tablets 15100-15200 yuan / ton
.

3.
In terms of inventory, as of the end of June 2017, the growth rate of rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone has slowed down, the warehousing plan has been reduced, and the outbound situation is more active
than before.
Most warehouses are still under pressure on capacity, but due to the reduction of inbound plans, the growth space and speed have slowed down, and the outbound volume of some large warehouses has also increased
.

4.
Future market forecast: This network analysis preliminary forecast that rubber is gradually digesting inventory, but the oversupply situation still cannot be improved
.
Coupled with the fact that the downstream demand of the rubber industry has not been strongly stimulated, it is expected that the rubber market quotation will continue to be weak and downward
next week.