Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (8.22-8.26)

The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, this week, the preliminary August manufacturing PMI in the euro area was 51.
8, below market expectations of 52 and the lowest level
in three months.
Domestically, from January to July, among industrial enterprises above designated size, state-controlled enterprises achieved a total profit of 651.
26 billion yuan, down 6.
1% year-on-year; The total profit of collective enterprises reached 25.
54 billion yuan, down by 0.
5%.

At present, the price of tianjiao is not supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have fluctuated and declined
.

Second, in terms of the market, the 14-year state-owned full latex in Shanghai was about 10,150 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton; In Shandong, the 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk was about 10,150 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton; The 14-year state-owned whole milk tax-free price in Hengshui was about 9,900 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton, and the 15-year private whole milk tax-free quotation was about 10,100 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton; Yunnan's 16-year private full latex quotation was about 10,300 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, in the week ended August 26, contrary to the continuous decline in stocks in the bonded zone, rubber stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise
.
Shanghai futures tianjiao inventory increased by 2896 tons to 357,200 tons, tianjiao market inventory is still at a historical high level, the recent domestic tianjiao market gradually cut, but the increase in the supply of tianjiao has been slow, tianjiao market price due to futures affected by the price decline
.

Fourth, in terms of demand, as of August 19, the operating rate of all-steel tires in the domestic tire industry is about 71.
2%, the operating rate of semi-steel tires is about 70%, the operating rate of the downstream tire market has not changed much, and the demand for upstream tianjiao is mainly based on rigid demand, but the tire market has not improved, and the spot price of tianjiao is affected by futures and the price declines
.

Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
With the improvement of the weather, the supply of raw materials in foreign production areas began to be slowly released, raw material prices began to fall, sufficient supply is expected to increase, and downstream consumption is still in the off-season, which puts pressure
on rubber prices.
Under the atmosphere of the Fed's interest rate hike expectations, the overall trend of commodity prices is under pressure, coupled with the rubber market due to its own factors, the downward trend is more significant
.
In the short term, the trend of rubber futures prices is still not optimistic, because the return of futures will continue, until the delivery in September 2016, the price is difficult to say optimistic
.
In the later stage, it depends on whether the cooperation of downstream demand will improve, in order to determine the possibility and height
of the rebound of the price of tianjiao.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern
in the short term.