Analysis on the rising space of soybean market price in China

Introduction: with the depletion of domestic soybean With the depletion of domestic soybeans and the influx of imported soybeans, there are different opinions about the trend of the domestic soybean market in the later period, whether to continue the "bull" trend or to decline The insiders hold that the market advantage factor is the dominant factor They believe that the bull market in the world soybean market has not ended since last year, and the price should be higher Rise space With the passage of time, the world's soybean is changing from a tight supply last year to a balanced supply and demand situation, and there should be a major correction in prices The interweaving of the positive and negative factors makes the market fall into the deadlock of being unable to go up and resting down Neither of them has the ability to cross each other in a short time The main reason for EZb's price rise last year was the reduction of soybean production in the United States, but the reduction of other vegetable oil production in the world also contributed to the price Last year, the world's other vegetable oil production was affected by the weather in Canada, Australia, China and other countries The yield of oil-bearing crops has been reduced by a large margin, reaching more than 5 million tons, which has also resulted in an increase in the dependence of the world market on soybeans and soybean products The consumption level of soybeans has increased by a large margin, and it is inevitable that the supply of soybeans in the world market is tight EZb and this year, because the weather did not show the bad weather of last year, the oil crop production in these countries has recovered this year Therefore, this year, there will be no increase in soybean consumption due to the reduction of other vegetable oil production Although the planting area of soybeans in the United States this year is smaller than last year, the output of soybeans this year will increase compared with last year because the market believes that severe weather will not continue to occur Based on the above factors, EZb expects that the world soybean market will enter into a relatively balanced situation with the passage of time The correction of international market price is only a matter of time In terms of domestic market, there are several factors that will restrict the rise of domestic soybean price: first of all, the fall of international soybean price will inevitably reduce the cost of imported soybean For domestic soybean consumers (oil factories), the price decline of imported soybean makes them focus on the imported soybean with lower price due to the relaxation of soybean import restrictions Moreover, the oil output rate of imported soybean is higher than that of domestic soybean According to a recent information, due to the low price of soybean meal and the high price of soybean, the profit space of some oil plants has been reduced to the minimum, and some oil plants have no profit, which will reduce the consumption of soybean by oil plants It is also expected that some difficulties will occur in the sales of domestic soybeans due to the decrease of consumption dependence of oil factories on domestic soybeans EZb second, the channel of domestic soybean import has been completely restored, and there will be no situation that domestic soybean import could not come in last year Therefore, the domestic soybean market will also enter the balance of supply and demand in the future, and the space for price rising will be smaller and smaller That said, it is not to say that there will be a sharp correction in prices right away The main reason is that the current market is the capital market In such a market background, the price fluctuation will deviate from the fundamentals in many times, sometimes to a great extent Although a lot of soybeans were imported in the first half of this year, it only eased the supply shortage last year, and the market supply of soybeans is still tight EZb in general, with the passage of time, the supply of domestic soybean market will be more and more abundant It is expected that the market negative factors will be stronger and stronger, and the space for prices to rise again will be weakened EzB
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