-
Categories
-
Pharmaceutical Intermediates
-
Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients
-
Food Additives
- Industrial Coatings
- Agrochemicals
- Dyes and Pigments
- Surfactant
- Flavors and Fragrances
- Chemical Reagents
- Catalyst and Auxiliary
- Natural Products
- Inorganic Chemistry
-
Organic Chemistry
-
Biochemical Engineering
- Analytical Chemistry
- Cosmetic Ingredient
-
Pharmaceutical Intermediates
Promotion
ECHEMI Mall
Wholesale
Weekly Price
Exhibition
News
-
Trade Service
;
Recently, many European countries have suffered large-scale avian influenza outbreaks
.
With the approach of traditional festivals in the West, the spread of avian influenza coupled with inflation and other problems have aggravated the egg supply crisis
in many countries.
A few days ago, the French Ministry of Agriculture announced that the risk level of avian influenza will be raised from intermediate to high, requiring all poultry to adopt the method of "indoor rearing" and stay active indoors to prevent the spread
of bird flu epidemics.
In addition to France, European countries such as the Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom are facing bird flu crises
.
The European Food Safety Authority said last month that the European region has suffered the worst bird flu outbreak in history this year, culling nearly 50 million poultry
.
According to the British Egg Producers Association, hen feeding costs have risen by at least 50% this year, energy, labour and packaging costs are rising rapidly, and many members of the association lose money
for every egg produced.
Wei Xiu, an egg analyst at Huishang Futures, believes that in the short term, the large-scale avian influenza in Europe mainly affects the poultry breeding link, resulting in a tight global poultry meat supply; In the medium and long term, if the outbreak of avian influenza continues, it may cause the global breeding poultry trade to be blocked or even interrupted, causing the global livestock and poultry production capacity to decline and the price to rise
sharply.
"With this massive outbreak in Europe, supply pressures will increase further given the seasonal increase
in egg demand at the end of the year.
However, China's egg market produces and sells itself, with an annual export volume of 40,000-60,000 tons, accounting for 0.
1%-0.
5%
of the total output.
Therefore, the short-term impact of European egg demand and prices on the domestic egg market is minimal
.
Everbright Futures egg analyst Kong Hailan said
.
Founder Medium-term Futures Egg analyst Song Congzhi told the Futures Daily reporter that China has not had a large-scale avian influenza outbreak after 2017, and only a few places in China have sporadic cases caused by H5N1 subtype virus this year, mainly because the immunization coverage rate and immunization qualification rate of China's avian influenza vaccine have been at the international leading level
.
"Although the egg trade price difference between China and the United States is high, due to the lack of trade flows, egg prices in Europe and the United States have skyrocketed, which has almost no impact
on the country.
Especially in terms of introduction, China's layer hen ancestor chicken dependence on the European and American markets is gradually decreasing, public information shows that this year only January and August introduction, as of August, this year's introduction volume of about 88,000, compared with the previous year of 200,000 sets of introduction has dropped significantly
.
Therefore, the impact of the avian influenza epidemic in Europe on China's egg market is relatively limited
.
Song Congzhi said
.
In fact, the supply and demand and price performance of China's egg market mainly depend on the demand for eggs in the domestic market
.
According to Wei Xiu, from the supply side, the stock of laying hens in 2022 is in a slow recovery stage
.
Data show that the number of laying hens in the country in October was about 1.
185 billion, an increase of 0.
08% month-on-month and 1.
37% year-on-year, and the inventory was still lower than normal
.
In terms of newly laid hens, the new laying hens in November were mainly chicks replenished around July, and the number of chicks replenished in July decreased by 1.
56 million compared with June, a decrease of 2.
89%.
As a result, the number of new laying hens in November was slightly lower
than in October.
"Although egg prices performed better in September and October, feed costs were higher, and some farmers chose to replace brooding by delaying the elimination of pen pressing instead of brooding to increase egg production
.
Affected by this, the proportion of old chickens to be hunted for in October continued to increase
.
Kong Hailan said that with the recent weak decline in egg prices, the oscillation range of egg prices has moved down, and farmers' willingness to eliminate has increased
.
As of November 11, Zhuochuang sample points counted 14.
04 million old chickens, an increase
over the previous week.
If this elimination trend continues, the egg supply will continue to run
at a low level before the end of the year.
Wei Xiu believes that on the whole, eggs in November are in the off-season of demand, and there is a lack of favorable support
such as festivals.
However, the epidemic situation has improved recently, and the goods in local production areas have been smooth, which is conducive to sales
.
At the same time, the "Double 11" e-commerce and supermarket promotions have driven egg shipments to improve, but they are only reflected in the increase in online sales of some small and medium-sized eggs, and the impact on the entire egg market has always been limited
.
Before the end of November, the terminal market will not be boosted by many factors such as holidays, and the relatively high egg price will have a certain inhibitory effect
on consumption.
In order to avoid risks, downstream dealers are more cautious in purchasing mentality and purchase
small batches on demand.
Looking forward to the future market, Kong Hailan believes that the price of feed raw materials will continue to run at a high level, the price of layer hen compound feed will continue to run at a historical high, and the breeding cost will continue to support the egg price in the short term
.
According to historical replenishment data, the stock of laying hens will continue to run at a low level before the end of the year, and the supply-side profit on egg prices will continue to exist
.
From the current fundamental performance, demand has become an important uncertainty factor
affecting future egg prices.
If future demand is stronger than expected, egg prices will continue to run at high levels; If demand weakens, the egg spot price oscillation range will continue to move
downward.
Wei Xiu said that in the short term, the market bearish mentality is still there, and the demand side is weak, the enthusiasm for taking goods in the trade link is not high, the market supply circulation is slow, the trading is flat, and it is expected that the egg market may oscillate
downward this week.
In the medium term, supported by the tight supply of eggs, feed costs are still at a high level, coupled with the drop in temperature, the egg storage time is extended, the low price of breeding is sold, and the mood is strong, and there may be another high level
near the Spring Festival.
In Song Congzhi's view, the recent egg fundamentals may maintain a short-term weak supply and demand, and then will enter the year-end consumption season, but under the policy pressure, the upward pressure on the price trend of fresh products such as pork, poultry meat, vegetables and other fresh products has increased, and the overall sluggish consumption this year will also limit the height of
the egg price rebound to a certain extent.
In addition, there are downside risks in the laying hen industry cycle, which makes it more cautious for funds to push up egg prices, especially the marginal bearishness caused by the high decline in feed prices is gradually increasing
.
Operationally, the overall valuation of the current egg 2301 price is low, and the high cost of spot and breeding may limit the downside, and the medium and long-term reference layer production cycle is high layout 2305 short.
;
;Recently, many European countries have suffered large-scale avian influenza outbreaks
.
With the approach of traditional festivals in the West, the spread of avian influenza coupled with inflation and other problems have aggravated the egg supply crisis
in many countries.
A few days ago, the French Ministry of Agriculture announced that the risk level of avian influenza will be raised from intermediate to high, requiring all poultry to adopt the method of "indoor rearing" and stay active indoors to prevent the spread
of bird flu epidemics.
In addition to France, European countries such as the Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom are facing bird flu crises
.
The European Food Safety Authority said last month that the European region has suffered the worst bird flu outbreak in history this year, culling nearly 50 million poultry
.
According to the British Egg Producers Association, hen feeding costs have risen by at least 50% this year, energy, labour and packaging costs are rising rapidly, and many members of the association lose money
for every egg produced.
Wei Xiu, an egg analyst at Huishang Futures, believes that in the short term, the large-scale avian influenza in Europe mainly affects the poultry breeding link, resulting in a tight global poultry meat supply; In the medium and long term, if the outbreak of avian influenza continues, it may cause the global breeding poultry trade to be blocked or even interrupted, causing the global livestock and poultry production capacity to decline and the price to rise
sharply.
"With this massive outbreak in Europe, supply pressures will increase further given the seasonal increase
in egg demand at the end of the year.
However, China's egg market produces and sells itself, with an annual export volume of 40,000-60,000 tons, accounting for 0.
1%-0.
5%
of the total output.
Therefore, the short-term impact of European egg demand and prices on the domestic egg market is minimal
.
Everbright Futures egg analyst Kong Hailan said
.
Founder Medium-term Futures Egg analyst Song Congzhi told the Futures Daily reporter that China has not had a large-scale avian influenza outbreak after 2017, and only a few places in China have sporadic cases caused by H5N1 subtype virus this year, mainly because the immunization coverage rate and immunization qualification rate of China's avian influenza vaccine have been at the international leading level
.
"Although the egg trade price difference between China and the United States is high, due to the lack of trade flows, egg prices in Europe and the United States have skyrocketed, which has almost no impact
on the country.
Especially in terms of introduction, China's layer hen ancestor chicken dependence on the European and American markets is gradually decreasing, public information shows that this year only January and August introduction, as of August, this year's introduction volume of about 88,000, compared with the previous year of 200,000 sets of introduction has dropped significantly
.
Therefore, the impact of the avian influenza epidemic in Europe on China's egg market is relatively limited
.
Song Congzhi said
.
In fact, the supply and demand and price performance of China's egg market mainly depend on the demand for eggs in the domestic market
.
According to Wei Xiu, from the supply side, the stock of laying hens in 2022 is in a slow recovery stage
.
Data show that the number of laying hens in the country in October was about 1.
185 billion, an increase of 0.
08% month-on-month and 1.
37% year-on-year, and the inventory was still lower than normal
.
In terms of newly laid hens, the new laying hens in November were mainly chicks replenished around July, and the number of chicks replenished in July decreased by 1.
56 million compared with June, a decrease of 2.
89%.
As a result, the number of new laying hens in November was slightly lower
than in October.
"Although egg prices performed better in September and October, feed costs were higher, and some farmers chose to replace brooding by delaying the elimination of pen pressing instead of brooding to increase egg production
.
Affected by this, the proportion of old chickens to be hunted for in October continued to increase
.
Kong Hailan said that with the recent weak decline in egg prices, the oscillation range of egg prices has moved down, and farmers' willingness to eliminate has increased
.
As of November 11, Zhuochuang sample points counted 14.
04 million old chickens, an increase
over the previous week.
If this elimination trend continues, the egg supply will continue to run
at a low level before the end of the year.
Wei Xiu believes that on the whole, eggs in November are in the off-season of demand, and there is a lack of favorable support
such as festivals.
However, the epidemic situation has improved recently, and the goods in local production areas have been smooth, which is conducive to sales
.
At the same time, the "Double 11" e-commerce and supermarket promotions have driven egg shipments to improve, but they are only reflected in the increase in online sales of some small and medium-sized eggs, and the impact on the entire egg market has always been limited
.
Before the end of November, the terminal market will not be boosted by many factors such as holidays, and the relatively high egg price will have a certain inhibitory effect
on consumption.
In order to avoid risks, downstream dealers are more cautious in purchasing mentality and purchase
small batches on demand.
Looking forward to the future market, Kong Hailan believes that the price of feed raw materials will continue to run at a high level, the price of layer hen compound feed will continue to run at a historical high, and the breeding cost will continue to support the egg price in the short term
.
According to historical replenishment data, the stock of laying hens will continue to run at a low level before the end of the year, and the supply-side profit on egg prices will continue to exist
.
From the current fundamental performance, demand has become an important uncertainty factor
affecting future egg prices.
If future demand is stronger than expected, egg prices will continue to run at high levels; If demand weakens, the egg spot price oscillation range will continue to move
downward.
.
Wei Xiu said that in the short term, the market bearish mentality is still there, and the demand side is weak, the enthusiasm for taking goods in the trade link is not high, the market supply circulation is slow, the trading is flat, and it is expected that the egg market may oscillate
downward this week.
In the medium term, supported by the tight supply of eggs, feed costs are still at a high level, coupled with the drop in temperature, the egg storage time is extended, the low price of breeding is sold, and the mood is strong, and there may be another high level
near the Spring Festival.
In Song Congzhi's view, the recent egg fundamentals may maintain a short-term weak supply and demand, and then will enter the year-end consumption season, but under the policy pressure, the upward pressure on the price trend of fresh products such as pork, poultry meat, vegetables and other fresh products has increased, and the overall sluggish consumption this year will also limit the height of
the egg price rebound to a certain extent.
In addition, there are downside risks in the laying hen industry cycle, which makes it more cautious for funds to push up egg prices, especially the marginal bearishness caused by the high decline in feed prices is gradually increasing
.
Operationally, the overall valuation of the current egg 2301 price is low, and the high cost of spot and breeding may limit the downside, and the medium and long-term reference layer production cycle is high layout 2305 short.
