Application for approval of osteoporosis drugs and injection of new growth momentum

[market analysis of chinapharma.com] osteoporosis is an age-related bone disease At present, China's population over 60 years old has exceeded 210 million (about 15.5% of the total population), and the population over 65 years old is nearly 140 million (about 10.1% of the total population), which is a country with a large number of elderly people in the world According to the results of the fifth national census, it is estimated that the number of osteoporosis in China is more than 90 million, accounting for about 7% of the total population, which is a country with a large number of osteoporosis patients in the world Tripeptide for injection (rhPTH1-34) is a 1-34 amino acid fragment of the amino end of human parathyroid hormone, which can be used in the treatment of osteoporosis According to the mechanism of action, anti osteoporosis drugs can be divided into bone absorption inhibitors, bone formation accelerators, other mechanism drugs and traditional Chinese medicine At present, the main osteoporosis drugs used in China are bone absorption inhibitors, whose mechanism is to inhibit the activity of osteoclasts to delay the loss of bone mass; and tripeptide can increase the number and activity of osteoblasts, thus promoting the formation of new bone, increasing bone density and bone strength, significantly reducing the incidence of fracture in osteoporosis patients, which has more advantages in the treatment and application of patients with fracture risk Tripatide is one of the recommended drugs in the diagnosis and treatment guidelines for primary osteoporosis (issued by osteoporosis and bone mineral Disease Branch of Chinese Medical Association in 2017) and osteoporosis fracture (issued by osteoporosis group of bone science branch of Chinese Medical Association in 2017) The FDA approved indications of tripeptide are for the treatment of postmenopausal women and men with high fracture risk, and also for the treatment of glucocorticoid related osteoporosis patients with high fracture risk China is a country with a serious aging and a large number of osteoporosis patients in the world Osteoporosis is an age-related skeletal disease At present, China's population over 60 years old has exceeded 210 million (about 15.5% of the total population), and the population over 65 years old is nearly 140 million (about 10.1% of the total population), which is a country with a large number of elderly people in the world According to the results of the fifth national census, it is estimated that the number of osteoporosis in China is more than 90 million, accounting for about 7% of the total population, which is a country with a large number of osteoporosis patients in the world The sales volume of tripeptide is growing rapidly, and the market space is expected to reach 500-1 billion yuan In 2016, the global sales volume of Lilly's tripatide exceeded 1.5 billion yuan, with a growth rate of more than 10%; according to the data of PDB sample hospital, the growth rate of domestic tripatide was about 50% Lilly's 80 μ L terapamide (once a day for one month) won an average bid of more than 5000 yuan in 2017 Generally, the treatment time of tripatide is 3-24 months According to the treatment time per capita of 1 year, the cost of drug treatment per capita is about 60000 yuan In the long run, with the aging of the population and the upgrading of consumption, it is expected that the domestic demand for high-quality osteoporosis drugs will gradually increase Based on the average annual treatment number of 10000 people, the market space of tripeptide is expected to reach 500-1 billion yuan The competitive pattern of tripeptide is good, and the company is expected to be listed as a second model The original manufacturer of tripatide is Lilly company of the United States, which was listed in the United States in 2002, and in China in 2011 The first domestic imitator is Shanghai United cell bioengineering Co., Ltd., whose products were listed in March 2017 The tripeptide applied for approval by the company is developed by the holding subsidiaries Suzhou Jinmeng Biotechnology Co., Ltd and Chengdu Jinkai Biotechnology Co., Ltd and is expected to be listed in the second half of 2018 or 2019 after approval Up to now, only Hanyu pharmaceutical has applied for clinical trials As a leading enterprise of cardiovascular drugs in China, xinlitai is expected to improve both performance and valuation next year Clopidogrel will accelerate its growth next year after Guangdong's inventory will be digested and the consistency evaluation is approved; bevaludine and alisartan ester are in a rapid volume period, and they are expected to contribute 300-400 million yuan and 100 million yuan respectively next year; tegrilol compound challenges are successful, and the approval time is expected to be advanced to next year, further strengthening the company's leading position in antiplatelet drugs Overall, we expect the company's performance to return to double-digit growth next year In addition, it is expected that 7-9 products of the company will be approved next year and the following years, and the company's anti heart failure and blood lipid lowering biological drugs will gradually enter the clinical stage The echelon product line construction provides support for the company's long-term and stable growth Profit forecast and investment rating It is estimated that the company's operating revenue in 2017-2019 will be 4.262 billion yuan, 4.832 billion yuan and 5.629 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.524 billion yuan, 1.770 billion yuan and 2.095 billion yuan respectively, equivalent to 1.46 yuan / share, 1.69 yuan / share and 2.00 yuan / share of EPS (dilution), PE will be 22.28 times, 19.19 times and 16.21 times respectively, maintaining the buying rating Original title: xinlitai: new growth impetus for the production of osteoporosis drugs for approval