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First, the macro aspect
First, the macro aspectDomestically,
1.
According to preliminary calculations, the GDP in the first quarter was 213433 billion yuan, an increase of 6.
4% year-on-year at comparable prices, unchanged from the fourth quarter of the previous year, and 0.
4 and 0.
2 percentage points
lower than the same period of the previous year and the whole year, respectively.
By industry, the added value of the primary industry was 876.
9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.
7%; the added value of the secondary industry was 8,234.
6 billion yuan, an increase of 6.
1%; The added value of the tertiary industry was 122317 billion yuan, an increase of 7.
0%.
2.
On April 30, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI): China's official manufacturing PMI in April was 50.
1, lower than the expected 50.
5, down from the previous value of 50.
5
.
International aspect,
1.
On April 9, US President Trump announced through social media that the United States will begin to impose tariffs totaling $11 billion on EU exports to the United States
.
2.
The emergency summit held by the EU on the 10th agreed to postpone the Brexit deadline to October 31
.
Previously, there were great differences between the UK and the EU and within the EU on the time limit and conditions for postponing Brexit, which brought uncertainty
to the second postponement of Brexit.
At the same time, despite British Prime Minister Theresa May's initiative to open a cross-party dialogue, the deadlock facing the "Brexit" agreement has not been broken
.
Second, the market review
Second, the market review
April is the traditional consumption season, but this year's downstream situation is significantly weaker than before, domestic copper prices twice tested the strong pressure level around 50,000 points failed to effectively break through, and in late April under the strong rebound of the US dollar, London copper led Shanghai copper to gradually decline, Shanghai copper around 48,800 to get support
.
Copper prices have shown a strong negative correlation with the US dollar recently, and with the US dollar falling, the short-term copper price decline is expected to be limited
.
In terms of the market, the VAT reduction policy at the beginning of the month officially landed, and the market ticket point turned to 13%.
In early April, although the price of copper rose, the downstream market purchase increased, and the transaction was acceptable; However, after the copper price fell sharply in the middle of the month, although the holders gradually lowered the premium for realization before the holiday, the enthusiasm for buying goods downstream was low, and oversupply became the norm
.
This month's import profit window is still closed, as expected last month, with the reduction of VAT, the gap widened to around 1500 yuan / ton, and this situation will continue
in the near future.
3.
Waste market
Waste market
The US dollar strengthened, the domestic peak season was less than expected, and copper prices overall showed a high and falling trend this month
.
The main force of Shanghai copper runs in the range of 48800-50000, and the mainstream price of bright copper in the market is 44000-44500 yuan / ton, and the price difference of refined waste has narrowed
.
This month, copper prices rose in two waves, and the enthusiasm of scrap copper market shipments was high, and the market fell at the end of the month, and the sentiment of merchants to sell was once again stimulated
.
Due to the widening of the refined waste price difference, many downstream manufacturers have increased the utilization rate of copper scrap this year compared with last year; At the same time, with the seven types of scrap stop importing, the market scrap copper import share is limited, compared with March, this month the market scrap copper supply is also significantly reduced, scrap copper manufacturers in short supply, Tianjin, Suzhou, Fujian, Jiangxi and other places of some manufacturers occasionally have no choice but to raise the price to receive goods; This has also led some traders in Jiangsu and Zhejiang to reduce profits again, fast-forward and fast-out operations, and win
with quantity.
It is also understood that due to the impact of environmental protection, Shanghai mainland recycling traders have no choice but to "go out day and night", only opening their doors in the morning and evening, and local business has been greatly affected
.
4.
Trend forecast
Trend forecast
In April, copper prices maintained a volatile trend, in which macro favorable factors and weak market demand brought about by the intertwining of long and short intertwined, the later US data strong drove the overall pressure on non-ferrous metals, but the domestic data stabilized again, copper prices overall below the support level is relatively firm
.
It is expected that copper prices in May will fluctuate strongly, the overall resilience is full, it is difficult to have room for deep decline, in the short term, the US dollar index and other news have a greater impact on copper prices, and it is also recommended to continue to pay attention to the introduction of domestic stimulus policies and the sustainability of infrastructure construction
.
5.
Industry news
Industry news
1.
The Export Federation of India (EEPC) said India's copper exports are expected to fall sharply by 70% in 2018/19 (April 2018 to March 2019), mainly due to the shutdown of a copper smelter owned by Vedanta
.
India's exports of copper and copper products, including copper cathodes, amounted to US$1.
07 billion
in 2018/19, according to data released by EEPC.
Australian miner Aurelia Metals said it was negotiating the possibility
of acquiring Glencore's CSA copper mine in New South Wales.
Earlier this month, copper producer Aeris Resources said it was difficult to reach an agreement
with Glencore to buy the mine for $575 million.
Chile is the world's leading copper producer, and the country's copper production this year will increase by 2.
2% year-on-year to 5.
96 million tons, and production is expected to touch 6.
21 million tons
in 2020, according to Chile's National Copper Commission.
Copper price estimates for 2019 were unchanged at $3.
05 per pound, but improved growth prospects in China have led to an upward revision to $3.
08 per pound for 2020
.
4.
Chilean national mining company Codelco, the top copper producer, produced 115,100 tonnes of copper in February, the lowest monthly output since January 2016, down 9.
5% month-on-month and 19.
3%
year-on-year, according to Bloomberg.
Due to heavy rains at mines such as Chuquicamata and Radomiro Tomic, production in the north fell to 50,500 tons
.
But Codelco's largest El Teniente copper mine produced 34 600 tonnes in February, up 4.
8%
month-on-month.
5.
The Ugandan government says it is making another attempt to reopen a closed copper mine
.
The copper mine is estimated to contain 4 million tons of ore
.
At the cabinet meeting, the government decided to redevelop the Kilembe mine
, located at the foot of the snow-covered Rwenzori Mountains.
The government said in a statement that the redevelopment plan would include "further mineral exploration to increase the known reserve base"
.
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