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significantly.
According to industry sources, global Atlantic salmon supply will grow by up to 2% next year, while salmon prices could rise by 50%
compared to 2021.
compared to 2021.
According to market research firm Kontali, a 2% increase in farmed salmon equates to about 60,000 tonnes, which would bring next year's level to about 2.
9 million tonnes
.
9 million tonnes
.
Pareto Securities seafood analyst Carl-Emil Kjolas Johannessen said that, on average, production grew by 6% per year from 2016 to 2021, while growth from last year to this year could be close to zero
.
.
"In Norway, production growth will be lower than expected because many companies are not buying much growth due to tax proposals, and Norway's traffic light system is also limiting growth," says
Kjolas Johannessen.
Kjolas Johannessen.
Salmon-farming countries such as Chile and Scotland also face production problems
.
Chile's new president wants to limit salmon production amid environmental concerns, while Scotland is also grappling with biological challenges
this year.
.
Chile's new president wants to limit salmon production amid environmental concerns, while Scotland is also grappling with biological challenges
this year.
Therefore, prices are likely to continue to rise
.
.
"The market will see some of these contract prices rise, while spot prices are likely to rise less," the analyst said
.
Kjolas Johannessen explained that the Norwegian government's tax proposal could lead to more fish being sold on the spot market, which would result in smaller
gains in the spot market as a whole.
.
Kjolas Johannessen explained that the Norwegian government's tax proposal could lead to more fish being sold on the spot market, which would result in smaller
gains in the spot market as a whole.
One of the most controversial aspects of the Norwegian aquaculture tax is that it will be based on the average spot price of salmon on the NASDAQ, rather than the actual price the farmer receives from the product, meaning that if a salmon farmer sells their produce at a lower price than the Nasdaq calculated price, the farmer will still be obliged to pay taxes
on the higher price.
on the higher price.
Salmon exchange Fish Pool estimates prices for next year at around NOK 86-87 (EUR 8.
30/USD 8.
60), 50%
higher than the average price of NOK 58.
26 (EUR 5.
70/USD 5.
90) in 2021.
30/USD 8.
60), 50%
higher than the average price of NOK 58.
26 (EUR 5.
70/USD 5.
90) in 2021.
Based on salmon prices on the NASDAQ exchange, an average of NOK 92.
92 (USD 9.
28/USD 8.
98) per kg was recorded in the first half of 2022, compared to NOK 58.
07 (USD 5.
80/5.
61)
per kg in the same period in 2021.
However, prices rose sharply to record highs at the start of the year, but have since fallen
sharply.
When calculating the final year-end figures, the average price in 2022 may be lower
.
92 (USD 9.
28/USD 8.
98) per kg was recorded in the first half of 2022, compared to NOK 58.
07 (USD 5.
80/5.
61)
per kg in the same period in 2021.
However, prices rose sharply to record highs at the start of the year, but have since fallen
sharply.
When calculating the final year-end figures, the average price in 2022 may be lower
.
FishPool chief executive Soren Martens said next year's contract price takes into account the risk of
land tax.
"That's why contract prices have risen recently.
"
land tax.
"That's why contract prices have risen recently.
"