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Since April, the overall bitumen has followed the crude oil to show a trend of interval oscillation consolidation.
As of the close on May 6, the main asphalt contract closed at 3,086 yuan/ton, a 9.
58% increase compared to the price in early April.
Looking ahead, the weakness of asphalt fundamentals is difficult to improve in the short term, but crude oil may continue to maintain a strong trend under the influence of multiple favorable factors.
Under the game of high inventory and high cost, asphalt is expected to fluctuate in a high range.
Strong cost support
The macroeconomic recovery is strong, and the outlook for crude oil demand is improving.
Data shows that my country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter increased by 18.
3% year-on-year, the highest growth rate since 1992.
Maintain easing on the supply side
The operating rate of asphalt refineries has steadily increased, and the asphalt market has ample supply.
Recently, Dalian West Pacific in the northeast region has resumed normal production, the daily production of Hebei Kaiyi in North China has increased, and the normal production of China Shipping and Sichuan in the southwest region has driven the overall operating rate to rise from the previous month.
Data show that as of April 28, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic refineries was 49%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month.
According to the latest market data, the May production schedule is 3.
High inventory pressure still exists
Affected by capital and weather factors, demand release is still not optimistic.
The issuance of special bonds has been significantly reduced, and there is limited support for funds.
Data show that in March 2021, local government bonds nationwide issued 477.
In terms of weather, according to information from China Weather Network, there will be more rain and weather in the later period, which will affect downstream construction.
At the same time, the reduction of funds has exacerbated the problems of terminal payment difficulties and high advances.
In summary, the refinery production schedule increased in May, and the operating rate still has room for improvement.
In addition, the weather and capital factors have led to the slow release of asphalt demand.
Transfer from: Chemical Network
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