At the end of November, China's corn market will step out of the trough

Introduction: China's corn market as a whole is still in a weak consolidation stage in recent years, but the decline is gradually slowing down New corn in Guannei production area has basically replaced the old corn in Northeast China, so after a sharp drop in the market price of corn, the decline has slowed down in recent days The Northeast production area is now mainly in the confrontation stage between corn acquirers and farmers It is expected that after the end of November, domestic corn will gradually go to the trough of the emergence stage, with a wave of rebound market But before the Spring Festival, it will fall into another low point, and it will not really come out of the low point until March and April next year At this stage, the main reason why domestic corn is in a weak position is that in the face of a good harvest, the market buyers and the purchasers have a strong sense of bearish, and the purchasing behavior is very cautious, most of them are still in a wait-and-see state In previous years, the main body of northeast corn acquisition - the acquisition of grain enterprises at the grass-roots level is basically at a standstill Some of the small acquisitions are for the collection of Southern enterprises The main reason is that the grain enterprises at the grass-roots level are focusing on the reform work because they are troubled by the reform and capital These enterprises have a low enthusiasm for purchasing, and the quantity of old grain is also small As the agricultural development bank raised the threshold of purchasing loans, many enterprises are faced with great problems in purchasing funds At present, the main purchasing power of the Northeast market is the corn deep processing enterprises that are more popular with high moisture corn However, the recent decrease of the purchasing price also reflects the psychology of being short in the later period, so the purchasing volume at this stage can be controlled In addition, the mentality of farmers is also an important factor The main reason is that the price gap is large Affected by the soaring corn prices last year and the first half of this year, the shortage of grain publicized by various media at that time, and the fact that China's grain is in short supply, etc., farmers do not accept the current low price and generally think that they will not worry about selling their corn in the later period; secondly, this year's northeast farmers learned from last year's experience The price of corn sold first is not higher than that of corn sold later, so it is believed that corn is "more and more expensive"; third, farmers' income has increased this year As a result of the implementation of the spirit of the first document of the Central Committee, measures such as direct subsidy and cancellation of agricultural taxes, and the high price of grain in the early stage, the growth rate of farmers' income this year exceeded that of urban population According to some data, the cash income of farmers in Jilin Province has increased significantly this year, with an increase rate of about 15% Therefore, the demand for cash of farmers is not as strong as before The above reasons lead to farmers' reluctance to sell It is expected that the confrontation between the buyer and the seller will continue for some time With the corn threshing and dehydration, the farmers will gradually sell the corn in their hands, so the price still has room to fall, but the decline will gradually decrease By the end of November, with the gradual recovery of demand, corn prices are expected to have a small rebound With the growth of piglets after the "two festivals" and the increase of poultry supply for the peak demand of poultry on New Year's day and Spring Festival, the consumption of corn feed will increase Generally speaking, there will be a small peak of domestic demand for corn feed after the end of November Therefore, it is expected that corn prices will rise in a wave, but this wave will not last for a long time, and the domestic corn prices will enter another trough before the Spring Festival In order to spend money on festivals, farmers usually need to sell a large amount of surplus grain in their hands before festivals, at which time, the amount of corn on the market will be enlarged However, due to the influence of "Spring Festival transportation" at the end of the year, railway transportation is expected to be more difficult, which will affect the procurement of grain enterprises Therefore, corn prices are expected to fall to the bottom before the festival If the price of corn in China is to really go out of the trough, it needs to be after March and April next year, when the domestic new corn has been consumed in a large amount, and the demand for breeding industry is growing steadily, the demand will gradually exceed the supply, and the market price will gradually rise