Australia's rapeseed production is expected to have another bumper harvest in 2021

Foreign media news on April 14: According to the latest Counselor’s Report issued by the foodmate.
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　　The Counselor pointed out in the first forecast report for the 2021/22 year that Australia's rapeseed production will only be slightly reduced by 100,000 tons to 3.
9 million tons.
Although the average yield will fall back to 1.
44 tons per hectare, the sown area will increase by 350,000 hectares, reaching the highest of 2.
7 million hectares in four years.

 

　　The counselor pointed out that the price of rapeseed remains high and the soil moisture in the eastern region is good before planting.
Therefore, farmers will increase the area of ​​rapeseed planting.
The current price of rapeseed in Australia is as high as 575 Australian dollars per ton, or approximately US$441.

 

　　According to Rabobank, the price of non-GMO rapeseed rose to 700 Australian dollars/ton last month.
Non-GMO rapeseed has a premium in major European import markets because the EU strictly restricts the use of genetically modified agricultural products.

 

　　The counselor pointed out that the increase in soil moisture has given farmers the confidence to change their arable land from winter cereals to high-risk rapeseed.
Many of these farmers were hesitant to plant rapeseed last year.
As a result, the drought caused crop failure and farmers had little benefit.
Therefore, they switched to crops with lower risks and lower input costs, such as wheat and barley.
Farmers, especially those in the eastern part of the European Union, may take greater risks to increase the rapeseed planting area.

 

　　The counsellor pointed out that the prospect of a bumper rapeseed harvest will allow Australia to export 2.
9 million tons of rapeseed in the 2021/22 season (December to November of the following year), which is consistent with this year’s exports and is higher than the 1.
66 million exports in 2019/20.
Tons, the dry weather at that time affected the harvest.

 

　　When the Counselor released the forecast, it came at a time when people were worried that the EU would again face a failed rapeseed harvest in 2021.
The European Union has been the world's largest rapeseed producer for many years before being replaced by Canada.
According to data from the European Commission, rapeseed production in the EU (excluding the United Kingdom) fell from 19.
9 million tons in 2017 to 15.
4 million tons in 2019 due to bad weather and the ban on neonicotinoids.
Last year's production only slightly recovered to 16.
1 million tons.

 

　　The unfavorable weather also makes the hope of recovery growth of rapeseed this year uncertain.

 

　　Strategic Grains has lowered the EU’s rapeseed production forecast for this year by 250,000 tons to 16.
8 million tons due to lower planting and production data in Germany.

 

　　At the same time, the cold weather in Europe has caused further concern because rapeseed is now in bloom and needs insect pollination.
Agritel said that the main concern in Europe is that the temperature in some areas has dropped below zero.
Frost can especially damage rapeseed crops.
Due to poor crop conditions and reduced plantings in France and Germany, the two major producers, the outlook for rapeseed supplies remains tight.

 

　　At the same time, Canadian farmers are preparing to plant rapeseed, and the dry weather in the southern part of the prairie restricts production prospects.
Maxar said it had limited rainfall this week, so southern Alberta, Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba remained dry.

 

　　Since March 24, the discount between the November contract representing the new season rapeseed on the ICE Exchange and the May contract representing the old season rapeseed has fallen by more than 20% to approximately CAD 142.
50 per ton.

 

　　Many analysts predict that Ukrainian rapeseed production will decline this year, resulting in a decrease of 200,000 tons of rapeseed exports in 2021/22 to 2.
19 million tons.
Ukraine is the main rapeseed supplier of the European Union.

 

　　These factors have caused some analysts to speculate that the EU will continue to be the main importer of Australian rapeseed in 2020/2021.
The counsellor pointed out that in the past five years, Australian rapeseed accounted for 80% of the EU's total imports.
These rapeseeds are mainly used to produce biodiesel.