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Bank of Merrill Lynch (BofAML) said it expects average oil prices of $70/b and $59/b
for Brent and WTI in 2019, respectively, due to OPEC production cuts and a 1.
3 million b/d increase in global oil demand.
Meanwhile, Brent and WTI expect oil prices to average $65/b and $60/b in 2020, BofAML added
in its report titled "Energy Strategy: Energy Outlook 2019-2020.
"
"Our assumption would actually reduce OPEC+ supply by 50 to 1 million b/d, resulting in a relatively balanced oil market and stable inventories next year
.
" In line with the trend of global GDP growth of 3.
6%, we expect global demand to grow by 1.
3 million b/d," the report revealed
.
While U.
S.
production easily exceeded expectations in September and October, it's worth noting that oil production from Russia, Saudi Arabia and Libya has taken a surprise
in recent months.
Since these increments have emerged in recent months, inventories have begun to rebuild
.
A higher production baseline is an issue for OPEC, and Merrill Linch is adding meaningful reductions in OPEC production led by Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries to the
forecast.
"We are no longer as constructive with oil prices as we were in September, but we still believe the market is oversold and will not recover until mid-2019
," Merrill Lynch said.
After all, while OPEC's budget spending is balanced, Saudi Arabia still needs $91/b to balance the 2019 government budget
.
”
Bank of Merrill Lynch (BofAML) said it expects average oil prices of $70/b and $59/b
for Brent and WTI in 2019, respectively, due to OPEC production cuts and a 1.
3 million b/d increase in global oil demand.
Meanwhile, Brent and WTI expect oil prices to average $65/b and $60/b in 2020, BofAML added
in its report titled "Energy Strategy: Energy Outlook 2019-2020.
"
"Our assumption would actually reduce OPEC+ supply by 50 to 1 million b/d, resulting in a relatively balanced oil market and stable inventories next year
.
" In line with the trend of global GDP growth of 3.
6%, we expect global demand to grow by 1.
3 million b/d," the report revealed
.
While U.
S.
production easily exceeded expectations in September and October, it's worth noting that oil production from Russia, Saudi Arabia and Libya has taken a surprise
in recent months.
Since these increments have emerged in recent months, inventories have begun to rebuild
.
A higher production baseline is an issue for OPEC, and Merrill Linch is adding meaningful reductions in OPEC production led by Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries to the
forecast.
"We are no longer as constructive with oil prices as we were in September, but we still believe the market is oversold and will not recover until mid-2019
," Merrill Lynch said.
After all, while OPEC's budget spending is balanced, Saudi Arabia still needs $91/b to balance the 2019 government budget
.
”
