Bearish sentiment concentrated release Shanghai aluminum into a consolidation trend

The macro situation was basically stable during the week, and from the perspective of domestic industry fundamentals, the National Development and Reform Commission issued more than a dozen "gold medals" in a row, and the prices of coal, coal chemical industry, electrolytic aluminum and other commodities plunged sharply
.
From the perspective of futures, Hulun aluminum may end the medium and long-term rally after falling continuously, and pay attention to whether it can enter a consolidation trend
later.
Next week, aluminum prices are expected to rebound in shocks
.

On the supply side, the interference of production restriction policy is still there, from late August to early September, Xinjiang, Guangxi and Yunnan have successively introduced policies to reduce electrolytic aluminum production, and in mid-September, Guangxi further increased the weight, Guizhou electrolytic aluminum enterprises in mid-to-late September peak production, Qinghai, Ningxia and Guizhou in October limited production
.
Due to the large number of self-owned power plants in the electrolytic aluminum industry, the price of thermal coal has fallen sharply, and the market is worried about the decline in the cost of electrolytic aluminum
.

On the demand side, the sharp rise in aluminum prices has inhibited some downstream replenishment, and as the State Council stops one-size-fits-all power cuts, the current operating rate is generally stable, but still at a low level
.
The sharp fall in aluminum prices may stimulate some replenishment demand, aluminum demand may recover, pay attention to inventory changes
.

In terms of inventory, social stocks increased by 25,000 tons month-on-month to 982,000 tons, and short-term accumulation may slow down
.

Overall, the disruption of the production restriction policy continued, with Qinghai, Ningxia and Guizhou limiting production in October; However, electrolytic aluminum enterprises have more self-provided electricity, and the price of thermal coal has fallen sharply, resulting in loose cost support for electrolytic aluminum; Considering the background of energy consumption control, production restrictions are still
disrupted.
On the demand side, the State Council again proposed to prevent one-size-fits-all power cuts, the operating rate remained stable, but still at a low level, and the sharp fall in aluminum prices may stimulate some demand, but the growth rate of the terminal industry slowed down, and aluminum demand will gradually enter the off-season, paying attention to inventory changes
.
Overall, short-term thermal coal prices continue to come under pressure, market sentiment is still weak, follow-up attention to demand recovery, price support, aluminum price rebound space is limited in the absence of major changes in demand; In the medium and long term, the supply-side reduction is still likely to strengthen, and Shanghai aluminum still has upside
.