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;
"Falling before winter, I haven't seen this
in more than a decade of pig farming.
" On December 26, Uncle Chen, a farmer in Shaoguan Xinfeng, sighed
to Times Finance.
This year's pig prices have been on a roller coaster
.
Before farmers could begin to indulge in the joy of making money, pig prices fell back
.
According to data from China Pig Network, the price of live pigs (foreign three yuan) on December 27 was 18.
19 yuan / kg, down 21.
05% from the previous month; The price of live pigs (inner three yuan) was 17.
69 yuan/kg, down 22.
07%
from the previous month.
Times Finance noted that pig prices continued to decline from late October, and the downward trend accelerated in December, and the pig price was still above 20 yuan/kg in early December, and fell below the "20 mark"
at the end of the month.
Industry insiders said that the current market pork is seriously oversupplied, resulting in a continuous decline
in pig prices.
Many farmers interviewed by Times Finance said that pig farming is becoming more and more bottomless
.
Pig prices fell before the holiday
Uncle Chen has been living in a nutritious pig farm in Xinfeng County, Shaoguan, and has been raising it for nearly 20 years
.
But he told Times Finance that after raising pigs for so many years, it was the first time that he encountered the "miracle" of falling pig prices before the winter: "Generally, the market before the winter solstice is the best, this year is too strange and unheard of
.
" ”
According to data from China Pig Network, the price of live pigs (foreign three yuan) fell continuously from 23.
23 yuan / kg on December 1 to 17.
09 yuan / kg on December 22, which is the festival that Chinese attaches great importance to - the winter solstice
.
Generally speaking, near the Spring Festival, pork consumption demand is strong, and farmers will take the opportunity to sell at a good price
.
Unexpectedly, at the end of this year, pig prices did not rise but fell
.
Uncle Chen told Times Finance that the pig market has not been good in the past two years, and the size of his pig farm has shrunk from more than 500 to more than 300.
"Recently, pig prices have been very unstable, ten days ago it was sold for 10.
07 yuan / jin, but in the past two days, pig prices have warmed up, and the most expensive can be sold for 14.
78 yuan / jin
.
"
According to China's pig breeding network, pig prices have recovered
slightly in the past two days.
On December 27, the national pig (foreign three yuan) price was 18.
19 yuan / kg, up 0.
55 yuan / kg from the previous day; The price of live pigs in Guangdong Province was 18.
76 yuan/kg, up 0.
51 yuan/kg
from the previous day.
Uncle Chen's breeding cost is about 8 yuan / jin, although the current pig price can still cover the cost line, but he said that firstly, the past two years have been "lost", second, pig prices are unstable, breeding costs are getting higher and higher, "In the case of reducing manpower and reducing feed costs, I don't expect to make money, just as having work to pass the time
.
" ”
Li Jian (pseudonym), who has also been in the pig farming business for more than two decades, is not so lucky
.
Li Jian is the person in charge of a pig farm in western Guangdong, with a total breeding scale of about
300,000 heads.
He told Times Finance that when the market is good, you can earn hundreds of millions a year, but this year you have lost a mess, "Generally speaking, if last year's pig raising was a loss of money, this year's pig price rises, I can hedge last year's debt, but this year I have lost tens of millions
.
" ”
Li Jian said that farmers who rely on pig farming to feed their families do not want pig prices to rise and fall
.
He calculated an account with Times Finance that if the breeding cost is 8.
5-9 yuan / catty, and the pig price is maintained at 10-11 yuan / catty, then a pig of about 250 pounds can earn 300-500 yuan
.
"But this year has been the most abnormal year
for pig prices.
In the past, pig prices basically went according to the law, if they went down, they would go all the way down, but this year's pig prices are extremely unstable, high and low, which is difficult to predict
.
Li Jian said that everyone thought that the pig price at the end of the year was good, they pressed the pigs not out of the slaughter, and fattened the second time, wanting to make a good price, who knew that the market was shocking, "I lost 10 million in this wave of market before the winter alone
.
" ”
According to data from China Pig Breeding Network, on December 27, the lowest domestic pig (foreign three yuan) price was 15.
6 yuan / kg, the highest was 21.
13 yuan / kg, and the pig price in the northeast and northwest regions was relatively low
.
If the cost of breeding is 8.
5 yuan / jin, farmers in five provinces in the country are in a state of loss
.
Large pigs flow to the market
Since the second half of this year, China's pig prices ushered in a wave of rapid rise, the National Development and Reform Commission said in mid-October that pork prices entered the excessive rise of the first warning range, and put in the sixth batch of central pork reserves this year, by mid-November, pig prices fell back to the excessive rise of the secondary warning range, and in early December exited the excessive rise warning range
.
It can also be seen from the monthly sales briefings of listed pig companies that their November commodity pig prices fell further, about slightly higher than their September sales prices, or unchanged
from them.
November sales data
of listed pig enterprises.
Source: November sales briefings of listed pig companies
Why don't pig prices rise but fall before the holiday? An industry insider told Times Finance that there are many factors
affecting the trend of pig prices.
"Consumption determines demand
.
On the demand side, affected by the epidemic, terminal catering and residents' daily pork consumption are abnormally sluggish, coupled with people's shortage of funds, which has further suppressed meat consumption, and this year's peak demand season has declined significantly compared with the same period of previous years; On the supply side, the head pig enterprises increased their slaughter at the end of the year, and most farmers had also been optimistic about the year-end market and had a large number of pen pressing and secondary fattening, resulting in a continuous backlog of supply before the Spring Festival, and pig prices fell
repeatedly.
The above-mentioned industry insiders said
.
Uncle Chen told Times Finance that his family's pigs generally weigh about 260 pounds, but recently they were sold after pressing more than 300 pounds
.
Li Jian also said that there is a certain degree of pressure fence
.
Among the listed companies, Times Finance found that "Pig Mao" Makihara shares (002714.
SZ) significantly increases the amount of
bar.
On December 5, Makihara issued an announcement on the increase in the 2022 pig slaughter range, saying that the 50 million to 56 million pig output range previously disclosed in the 2021 annual report will be raised to 61 million to 62 million
.
Conversely, Wens shares (300498.
SZ), New Hope (000876.
SZ), Superstar Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (603477.
SH) and other listed company securities departments said in an interview with Times Finance on December 26 that the company's planned slaughter volume this year has not changed much, about 18 million, 14 million and 1.
5 million respectively
.
In response to the recent rapid decline in domestic pig prices, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission recently organized a video conference to listen to the opinions of industry experts and some market institutions, and study the work
of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in the market.
Experts pointed out that the recent rapid decline in pig prices is mainly affected by factors such as weak pork consumption compared with previous years and increased pig supply at the end of the year
.
However, at present, the domestic pig production capacity is in the overall reasonable range, there is no overcapacity, the weak market consumption is temporary, and farmers do not need to worry too much
.
Recalling the days when pigs were raised, Li Jian said that it was completely incomparable
.
"At the beginning of investing one or two million, you can raise hundreds of pigs, but now the cost of raising pigs is getting higher and higher, for example, to raise a breeding sow, six or seven years ago only needed to invest 10,000, now at least 30,000
.
"
Li Jian sighed that from breeding to pig marketing for one year, the intermediate investment is very large manpower and material resources, but the gross profit margin only accounts for more than 20% of the pig industry, and the downstream processing, slaughtering and terminal retail gross profit margin accounts for more than 70%, and the return of farmers is very low
.
He believes that in order to ensure that consumers can eat high-quality and reasonably priced pork, and to protect the profits of farmers, it is necessary to solve the problem of circulation, distribute industrial profits fairly, and improve the enthusiasm of
farmers.
For next year's market, Li Jian said that his confidence is insufficient and completely bottomless, "no one can understand this market"
.
In addition to 300,000 pigs, Li Jian's pig farm has more than 200 employees, and he said, "I can only take one step and see one step.
"
;
;"Falling before winter, I haven't seen this
in more than a decade of pig farming.
" On December 26, Uncle Chen, a farmer in Shaoguan Xinfeng, sighed
to Times Finance.
This year's pig prices have been on a roller coaster
.
Before farmers could begin to indulge in the joy of making money, pig prices fell back
.
According to data from China Pig Network, the price of live pigs (foreign three yuan) on December 27 was 18.
19 yuan / kg, down 21.
05% from the previous month; The price of live pigs (inner three yuan) was 17.
69 yuan/kg, down 22.
07%
from the previous month.
Times Finance noted that pig prices continued to decline from late October, and the downward trend accelerated in December, and the pig price was still above 20 yuan/kg in early December, and fell below the "20 mark"
at the end of the month.
Industry insiders said that the current market pork is seriously oversupplied, resulting in a continuous decline
in pig prices.
Many farmers interviewed by Times Finance said that pig farming is becoming more and more bottomless
.
Pig prices fell before the holiday
Pig prices fell before the holidayUncle Chen has been living in a nutritious pig farm in Xinfeng County, Shaoguan, and has been raising it for nearly 20 years
.
But he told Times Finance that after raising pigs for so many years, it was the first time that he encountered the "miracle" of falling pig prices before the winter: "Generally, the market before the winter solstice is the best, this year is too strange and unheard of
.
" ”
According to data from China Pig Network, the price of live pigs (foreign three yuan) fell continuously from 23.
23 yuan / kg on December 1 to 17.
09 yuan / kg on December 22, which is the festival that Chinese attaches great importance to - the winter solstice
.
Generally speaking, near the Spring Festival, pork consumption demand is strong, and farmers will take the opportunity to sell at a good price
.
Unexpectedly, at the end of this year, pig prices did not rise but fell
.
Uncle Chen told Times Finance that the pig market has not been good in the past two years, and the size of his pig farm has shrunk from more than 500 to more than 300.
"Recently, pig prices have been very unstable, ten days ago it was sold for 10.
07 yuan / jin, but in the past two days, pig prices have warmed up, and the most expensive can be sold for 14.
78 yuan / jin
.
"
According to China's pig breeding network, pig prices have recovered
slightly in the past two days.
On December 27, the national pig (foreign three yuan) price was 18.
19 yuan / kg, up 0.
55 yuan / kg from the previous day; The price of live pigs in Guangdong Province was 18.
76 yuan/kg, up 0.
51 yuan/kg
from the previous day.
Uncle Chen's breeding cost is about 8 yuan / jin, although the current pig price can still cover the cost line, but he said that firstly, the past two years have been "lost", second, pig prices are unstable, breeding costs are getting higher and higher, "In the case of reducing manpower and reducing feed costs, I don't expect to make money, just as having work to pass the time
.
" ”
Li Jian (pseudonym), who has also been in the pig farming business for more than two decades, is not so lucky
.
Li Jian is the person in charge of a pig farm in western Guangdong, with a total breeding scale of about
300,000 heads.
He told Times Finance that when the market is good, you can earn hundreds of millions a year, but this year you have lost a mess, "Generally speaking, if last year's pig raising was a loss of money, this year's pig price rises, I can hedge last year's debt, but this year I have lost tens of millions
.
" ”
Li Jian said that farmers who rely on pig farming to feed their families do not want pig prices to rise and fall
.
He calculated an account with Times Finance that if the breeding cost is 8.
5-9 yuan / catty, and the pig price is maintained at 10-11 yuan / catty, then a pig of about 250 pounds can earn 300-500 yuan
.
"But this year has been the most abnormal year
for pig prices.
In the past, pig prices basically went according to the law, if they went down, they would go all the way down, but this year's pig prices are extremely unstable, high and low, which is difficult to predict
.
Li Jian said that everyone thought that the pig price at the end of the year was good, they pressed the pigs not out of the slaughter, and fattened the second time, wanting to make a good price, who knew that the market was shocking, "I lost 10 million in this wave of market before the winter alone
.
" ”
According to data from China Pig Breeding Network, on December 27, the lowest domestic pig (foreign three yuan) price was 15.
6 yuan / kg, the highest was 21.
13 yuan / kg, and the pig price in the northeast and northwest regions was relatively low
.
If the cost of breeding is 8.
5 yuan / jin, farmers in five provinces in the country are in a state of loss
.
Large pigs flow to the market
Large pigs flow to the marketSince the second half of this year, China's pig prices ushered in a wave of rapid rise, the National Development and Reform Commission said in mid-October that pork prices entered the excessive rise of the first warning range, and put in the sixth batch of central pork reserves this year, by mid-November, pig prices fell back to the excessive rise of the secondary warning range, and in early December exited the excessive rise warning range
.
It can also be seen from the monthly sales briefings of listed pig companies that their November commodity pig prices fell further, about slightly higher than their September sales prices, or unchanged
from them.
November sales data
of listed pig enterprises.
Source: November sales briefings of listed pig companies
of listed pig enterprises.
Data source: November sales report of listed pig enterprisesListed pig enterprises November sales data
.
Data source: November sales report of listed pig enterprisesListed pig enterprises November sales data
.
Source: November sales briefings of listed pig companies
Why don't pig prices rise but fall before the holiday? An industry insider told Times Finance that there are many factors
affecting the trend of pig prices.
"Consumption determines demand
.
On the demand side, affected by the epidemic, terminal catering and residents' daily pork consumption are abnormally sluggish, coupled with people's shortage of funds, which has further suppressed meat consumption, and this year's peak demand season has declined significantly compared with the same period of previous years; On the supply side, the head pig enterprises increased their slaughter at the end of the year, and most farmers had also been optimistic about the year-end market and had a large number of pen pressing and secondary fattening, resulting in a continuous backlog of supply before the Spring Festival, and pig prices fell
repeatedly.
The above-mentioned industry insiders said
.
Uncle Chen told Times Finance that his family's pigs generally weigh about 260 pounds, but recently they were sold after pressing more than 300 pounds
.
Li Jian also said that there is a certain degree of pressure fence
.
Among the listed companies, Times Finance found that "Pig Mao" Makihara shares (002714.
SZ) significantly increases the amount of
bar.
On December 5, Makihara issued an announcement on the increase in the 2022 pig slaughter range, saying that the 50 million to 56 million pig output range previously disclosed in the 2021 annual report will be raised to 61 million to 62 million
.
Conversely, Wens shares (300498.
SZ), New Hope (000876.
SZ), Superstar Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (603477.
SH) and other listed company securities departments said in an interview with Times Finance on December 26 that the company's planned slaughter volume this year has not changed much, about 18 million, 14 million and 1.
5 million respectively
.
In response to the recent rapid decline in domestic pig prices, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission recently organized a video conference to listen to the opinions of industry experts and some market institutions, and study the work
of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in the market.
Experts pointed out that the recent rapid decline in pig prices is mainly affected by factors such as weak pork consumption compared with previous years and increased pig supply at the end of the year
.
However, at present, the domestic pig production capacity is in the overall reasonable range, there is no overcapacity, the weak market consumption is temporary, and farmers do not need to worry too much
.
Recalling the days when pigs were raised, Li Jian said that it was completely incomparable
.
"At the beginning of investing one or two million, you can raise hundreds of pigs, but now the cost of raising pigs is getting higher and higher, for example, to raise a breeding sow, six or seven years ago only needed to invest 10,000, now at least 30,000
.
"
Li Jian sighed that from breeding to pig marketing for one year, the intermediate investment is very large manpower and material resources, but the gross profit margin only accounts for more than 20% of the pig industry, and the downstream processing, slaughtering and terminal retail gross profit margin accounts for more than 70%, and the return of farmers is very low
.
He believes that in order to ensure that consumers can eat high-quality and reasonably priced pork, and to protect the profits of farmers, it is necessary to solve the problem of circulation, distribute industrial profits fairly, and improve the enthusiasm of
farmers.
For next year's market, Li Jian said that his confidence is insufficient and completely bottomless, "no one can understand this market"
.
In addition to 300,000 pigs, Li Jian's pig farm has more than 200 employees, and he said, "I can only take one step and see one step.
"
