BMJ: Study on hospitalization and death risk prediction models for adult patients with neo-coronary pneumonia (QCOVID)

With the global pandemic of neo-crown pneumonia, medical resources available to fight the epidemic are becoming increasingly strained, and the identification of high-risk patients is particularly critical to improving patient prognostics.
recently, researchers from the UNITED Kingdom dedated and validated a risk prediction model to estimate hospitalization and mortality outcomes in adult patients with coronavirus disease (covid-19) in 2019.
study, a population-based cohort study, looked at QResearch database data, including 1,205 studies conducted in the UK, associated with covid-19 test results, hospital event statistics and death registration data.
6.08 million adults between the ages of 19 and 100, and the validation queue dataset included 2.17 million participants.
and first validation queue will be conducted from 24 January 2020 to 30 April 2020.
second validation queue covers the period from 1 May 2020 to 30 June 2020. The main result of the
study was the time of death of covid-19, defined as death from a confirmed or suspected covid-19 death, or death from a confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection between 24 January and 30 April 2020, according to the death certificate.
secondary result was a confirmed SARS-Cov-2 infection at the time of hospitalization.
during follow-up, 4,384 deaths were reported in the covid-19, 1722 in the first validation queue and 621 in the second. Risk factors for
models include demographic factors such as age, race, Townsend poverty score, lifestyle factors such as smoking, BMI, cocaine and injecting drug use, and co-disease factors such as long-term immunosuppressive therapy after organ transplantation, tumors, respiratory diseases, and cardiovascular disease during pregnancy.
for covid-19 male deaths, 73.1% of deaths can be predicted using this model, with a D statistic of 3.37 and Harrell's C of 0.928.
women's queues had similar results.
5 percent of patients with the highest risk of death, the sensitivity of the 97-day death prediction was 75.7 percent.
20 per cent of people at risk of death accounted for 94 per cent of all deaths in covid-19.
researchers, the new coronary pneumonia death and hospitalization risk prediction model for the population, is extremely accurate in predicting patient prognostication, and the results of the model are consistent with the current SARS-C0V-2 infection rate and the implementation of existing social isolation measures, however, the model can be recalibrated for different time periods and may be updated dynamically as the pandemic evolves.
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