Breaking through 2021, the South's vision of China's pharmaceutical economy trends - Lin Jianning in the 2020 National Pharmaceutical Economic Information Conference of the latest forecast

"2020 is coming to an end, in the volatile international situation and repeated outbreaks, the just-needed characteristics of drugs and the industry's innovative genes continue to drive the global drug market to maintain positive growth, and China's pharmaceutical economy is also the new normal brought about by the epidemic under a new round of reconstruction.
2021, we still believe that the sunrise industry of medicine will not change.
" December 9, 2020-2021 National Pharmaceutical Economic Information Conference held in Guangzhou, the State Drug Administration, the director of the Southern Institute of Pharmaceutical Economics, Lin Jianning, the current medical economy has been thoroughly combed, and led the delegates on the 2021 pharmaceutical market changes to carry out in-depth thinking.
(detailed forecast data see the end of the article) The State Drug Administration, the director of the Southern Institute of Pharmaceutical Economics, Lin Jianning 1 inventory 2020 pharmaceutical economy "epidemic" harvest Lin Jianning first answered the industry's most concerned about a question: under the epidemic, China's pharmaceutical economy performance? "According to the IMF's latest forecast, the global economy will decline in 2021 due to the new crown epidemic, but China's economy can still maintain positive growth, with a series of steady growth measures, pharmaceutical manufacturing revenue after two quarters of decline, the growth rate in August from negative, the first ten months of cumulative growth of 2.5%, especially in the health materials and medical devices sub-sectors, growth rate of 41.4% and 27.7%, respectively.
from the performance of pharmaceutical listed companies, operating income in the first three quarters increased by 5.1%, while profit growth reached 26.7%.
same time, the value of pharmaceutical exports in the first three quarters of the total value of delivery reached 217.99 billion yuan, an increase of 37.2% year-on-year.
" but Lin Jianning also pointed out that in the overall gradual recovery of the pace, some sub-sectors still did not recover from the outbreak, January-October chemical industry revenue fell 4.3% yoY, profits fell 9.3%, the relevant listed companies also have nearly half of the net profit is a loss.
and the chinese medicine manufacturing industry revenue and profits also fell by more than 5%, it can be seen that the real benefits of the epidemic is not many enterprises, 2021 will be the test of enterprises to break through and restore growth.
revenue, total profit and growth of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in the first 10 months of 2019-2020 (Source: National Bureau of Statistics) Revenue and growth of various sub-sectors of pharmaceutical listed companies in the first three quarters of 2020 (data sources) : National Bureau of Statistics) In the first three quarters of 2020, the total profit and growth of various sub-sectors of pharmaceutical listed companies (100 million yuan) (source: National Bureau of Statistics) The upstream pharmaceutical industry moved forward under the pressure of the epidemic, and the downstream end market experienced unprecedented negative growth in the past decade due to epidemic factors.
based on Lin Jianning's analysis, China's drug sales are gradually dividing into online and offline two categories of terminal industry.
terminals include hospitals, brick-and-mortar pharmacies and primary medical institutions, and online terminals include platform e-commerce, vertical e-commerce and Internet hospitals.
of the outbreak, the differentiation of these four terminals is more obvious.
drug sales in hospitals below the national level have declined significantly, mainly because of a marked decrease in the number of visits due to outbreak prevention and control. according to the latest data of
Health Care Commission, from January to August, the total number of patients and patients in medical and health institutions nationwide decreased by 16.1% YoY, of which hospitals decreased by 17.2% YoY and primary health care institutions decreased by 13.8% YoY.
2 First mention drug sales during the fourth terminal outbreak, pharmacies have become the main place for people to buy drugs, just need to pull the overall growth of pharmacy sales, and the growth rate from 0.6% in the first quarter to 4.6% in the third quarter, is expected to grow by 6% for the whole year, the first half of 2020 new The number of pharmacies reached 7,232, the total number of pharmacies nationwide has exceeded 530,000, the performance of the four listed chains also maintained a rapid growth of more than 20%, but Lin Jianning also pointed out that from the sample pharmacy data, there are still more than 40% of pharmacies negative growth in the first quarter, the next pharmacy ring reshuffle will accelerate.
but brick-and-mortar pharmacies are already inevitably hit hard by e-commerce.
" outbreak changed the public's buying habits, online terminals during the outbreak, become a new growth pole can not be ignored.
" Lin Jianning first put forward the concept of the fourth terminal of drug sales, that is, the online terminal.
analysis, during the outbreak of major pharmaceutical e-commerce platform transaction activity significantly increased.
more than 200 online pharmacies on the Ali Health and JD.com pharmaceutical platforms, with online drug sales reaching 43.47 billion yuan in the first ten months of 2020, up 53.17 percent year-on-year, according to data monitored by the Southern Network Monitoring Center.
Lin Jianning compared the growth trend of drug online and offline terminals in detail.
He pointed out that in 2020, offline sales of pharmaceuticals will be 431.6 billion yuan (including hospitals, brick-and-mortar pharmacies and primary medical institutions), an increase of 24.4 billion yuan, or 6%, over the previous year, while online drug sales will be 159.3 billion yuan, an increase of 59.1 billion yuan, or 59%, and the absolute value of online increments will be about 2.4 times lower than that of the previous year.
Online and offline drug retail market comparison (source: Southern Institute of Pharmaceutical Economics Network Supervision Center) "Currently, only Ali and JD.com two platforms online sales of prescription drugs monthly amount of more than 500 million yuan, the next stage with the conditional liberalization of prescription drug online sales, this number will continue to climb."
Lin Jianning believes that "another factor supporting the rapid growth of online terminals is the rise of Internet medical care."
So far, there are more than 900 Internet hospitals in the country, conservatively estimated that its market size will exceed 94 billion yuan, of which drugs accounted for nearly half, '14th Five-Year Plan' period, the state will focus on supporting the development of Internet medical care, in the future, online hospitals may become the standard for physical hospitals.
" with the Chinese society into the process of ageing, slow disease patients increase, the public online drug shopping habits gradually formed, pharmaceutical e-commerce in the face of great opportunities, its existence of false information, illegal sales and other issues will be highlighted, but drug consumption to the online transfer is a big trend, the corresponding health insurance payment, safety supervision and other policies will be in place, the standardization process of the online terminal will be a huge impact on traditional brick-and-mortar pharmacies.
Lin Jianning, for example, said that in November, Amazon.com sold prescription drugs, consumers actively asked U.S. retail giant CVS pharmacies to transfer personal prescription drug records to Amazon, Novarca, Lilly, BMS and other multinational pharmaceutical companies also in this year's Expo, with Ali Health and other platforms to accelerate online sales layout.
already have to face the outpatient co-ordination to bring passenger flow diversion, collection and price limit and other pressure of physical pharmacies, active embrace of the Internet will be the inevitable choice.
, china's drug end-market sales fell 2 per cent year-on-year in 2020, with the offline market down 5.4 per cent.
" Lin Jianning said, "the impact of the epidemic on the pharmaceutical economy as a whole is negative."
" outlook 2021, in the macro-economic recovery, the premise of a new round of large-scale domestic outbreaks, under the support of rigid demand for drugs, China's drug market will show significant recovery growth, including hospital terminals will grow by 12%, pharmacy terminals will grow by 5.5%, primary health care terminals will rebound by 17%, offline terminals will rise by 10.8%, and online terminals will still maintain more than 40% of the rapid development.
2020-2021 drug end-market sales forecast (data source: Southern Institute of Pharmaceutical Economics) 3 forward-looking 2021 four major changes so in the terminal changes, innovative drugs, generic drugs, original research drugs, traditional Chinese medicine will face what kind of policy variables, showing what kind of new competitive pattern? Lin Jianning carried out a detailed analysis of this, combing out the 2021 pharmaceutical market four major points of view: First, pharmaceutical innovation continued to add code, the epidemic will not stop the pace of global innovation.
the FDA approved 46 new drugs in the first 11 months of 2020, including 34 new chemical substances, while China approved nine new class I drugs.
the outbreak has not slowed the pace of approval of new drugs, but has spurred pharmaceutical companies to invest in research and development in antiviral drugs and vaccines.
2021-2026, the global biopharmaceity market will reach $505 billion, accounting for 35% of the total pharmaceutical market.
, 55 percent of the world's 100 best-selling drugs came from new biotech drugs.
, the oncology drug market has maintained a compound growth rate of 11.5%, reaching $311.2 billion globally by 2026.
sales of cancer drugs in Chinese hospitals have also maintained strong growth momentum, especially in the PD-1 category of drugs.
In the next five years, the research and development intensity of multinational pharmaceutical companies averages more than 16%, the research and development intensity of domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies represented by Hengrui, Xinda, etc. has exceeded 17%, and the pattern of domestic innovative drug research and development market has been formed.
China's share of the global innovative drug market will exceed 16%, local research and development enterprises will be further integrated into the global competition for research and development innovation, while the capital market is more favored for innovative drugs, only 34% of the funds raised by listed companies are used for specific pharmaceutical clinical research and development projects.
Lin Jianning at the same time remind enterprises to pay attention to the high level of domestic innovation drugs repeat the phenomenon, only the declaration of methionate imatinib generic drugs have more than 80 enterprises, in addition to the "big explosion" of Tini, with PD-1/PD-L1 target-related drugs more than 260 kinds, clinical trial stage has 115, the country has PD-1/L1 products of enterprises have more than 100.
"high levels of repetition" may lead to lower prices, but the potential for innovative drugs remains huge.
will continue to be sought after in 2021.
" second point of view is that the new health care policy will accelerate the change of generic hospital terminal pattern.
This year, the year of the "Healthy China" 2020 strategic plan, the total cost of health as a proportion of GDP has exceeded 6.5%, the proportion of personal expenditure has dropped to 28.4%, the government's expenditure on health care has maintained a steady growth of more than 7%, China's poor have achieved due protection, the number of people living in poverty due to disease will be reduced.
Health insurance investment from the original way of flooding, to wide coverage, re-co-ordination, protection of basic, strong grass-roots, and in the field of medicine compliance, health insurance institutions frequently hit hard, coupled with tax and anti-commercial bribery and other policy implementation, the proportion of hospital end-drug has been reduced to about 28%, "to supplement medicine" pattern is gradually loosening change.
Lin Jianning pointed out that the current domestic generic drug market is under greater survival pressure.
On the one hand, the collection price reduction is obvious, the next national collection platform will be built, the price linkage mechanism will further reduce the winning bid price, "4 plus 7" so that generic drug consistency evaluation as the basic threshold rather than competitive advantage, collection normalization, price exchange to strengthen the giant market control.
In the hospital terminal, generic drugs appear "volume rise and fall" situation, it is expected that five years after the proportion of sales of generic drugs or will fall below 55%, on the other hand, the monopoly of API repeatedly banned, zucarnitin, dopamine, calcium gluconate and other 12 concerned about the existence of API monopoly of preparation products, the average price in five provinces has been three consecutive years of decline, generic drug enterprises bear greater cost pressure.
In the first half of 2017-2020, sales of original and generic drugs accounted for the proportion of drug sales (source: punctuation information) Lin Jianning believes that the future market will be left only with cost advantages of large generic pharmaceutical companies and high-end generics companies.
In the next five years, the world will have total sales of more than 380 billion U.S. dollars of drug patents due, at the same time, China has also issued a list of clinically urgently needed new drugs abroad, which provides a structural opportunity for domestic first generic drug companies.
Lin Jianning also discussed in particular whether the original drug is gradually withdrawing from the Chinese market.
, he says, there is a wave of counter-globalization, with the U.S. and Japan planning to move manufacturing back home.
the advantages of China's local innovation also weaken the competitiveness of the original drug research, especially the ability of health care negotiations to cut prices can not be underestimated, many foreign companies give up the winning bid.
However, the terminal data show that the share of original research drugs in hospital terminals does not decline or rise, which is related to the domestic policy of expanding imports based on clinical demand, as well as the good pharmacoeconomic effects of the original research drugs, as well as the active expansion of commercial insurance after some drugs are converted to self-funded drugs.
can be seen that the competition of drugs is after all quality competition, domestic drugs to expand the share, but also from the promotion of therapeutic effect, the pursuit of high-quality development.
, the Chinese medicine market will remain a key area for the next five years.
the new crown outbreak, the proportion of Chinese medicine involved in the treatment of confirmed cases reached 92%, effectively reducing the incidence of morbidity, transfer rate, fatality rate, improve the cure rate, its unique anti-epidemic advantages have been recognized in the world.
14th Five-Year Plan period, the state will incorporate Chinese medicine into the planning and construction of national medical centers and national regional medical centers.
Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao will also be built as an innovative highland of Chinese medicine.
the new chinese medicine registration classification, it is clear that the ancient classic prescription of Chinese medicine compound preparations can be exempted from clinical speed-up listing.
Chinese medicine enterprises grasp a series of policy dividends worth pondering.
Lin Jianning said that in the first three quarters of 2020, the chinese medicine industry revenue and profits both negative growth, Chinese medicine injections in key cities public hospital sales fell below 10 billion yuan, short-term market decline how to reverse, how to prove efficacy and safety, in the modernization of Chinese medicine, internationalization to make substantial progress, is the Chinese medicine industry urgently need to break through the pass.
4 refining new key words for pharmaceutical development" in general, recovery, innovation, integration, compliance will be the key words of China's pharmaceutical economy in 2021.
In particular, innovative drugs drive accelerated growth in the global pharmaceutical market, Chinese-style innovation plus code, highly sought after by capital, generic pharmaceutical giants divided the market, but the end share is declining; high imitation is a new high ground, self-funded drugs into a new track; the proportion of the original pharmaceutical market is still increasing but structural changes, a series of strict inspection will further force compliance, long-term good policy can not change the short-term trend of Chinese medicine, e-commerce will become the fourth terminal of the pharmaceutical market.
" Lin Jianning on 2021