Brief review of Shanghai aluminum on August 2

At this stage, the disturbance of the supply side of Shanghai aluminum is still the main contradiction, and last week, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory fell again by 51,000 tons to 758,000 tons; the southwest aluminum industry due to the intensification of power tension, the scope of power rationing and negative reduction expanded, and the proportion of power reduction and negative reduction may increase from 25% to 30%; Guangxi and Guizhou peak shift reduction requirements are increased, aluminum plants may adopt early maintenance and other methods to implement the burden reduction, it is estimated that this round of burden reduction will be maintained until October, the degree of capacity constraints will intensify, and the supply gap will expand.

The latest data show that the current domestic social inventory has fallen to around 750,000 tons, compared with last week's cumulative destocking of 50,000 tons, the range has expanded, which also indicates to a certain extent the short-term market arrival of the insufficient, the impact of transportation obstruction on spot is still large, coupled with the power rationing policy under the production of many aluminum companies, driving the rise
in spot prices.

In the short term, aluminum prices will continue to run at a high level, but with the improvement of traffic around the subsequent inventory or reversal phenomenon, aluminum prices still have a high risk of falling, it is recommended to cautiously chase up, short-term continue to pay attention to 1.
96-20,000 range shocks, the operation can be high appropriate shipments, downstream wait and see, it is expected that tomorrow's spot aluminum will continue to fluctuate
at a high level.