-
Categories
-
Pharmaceutical Intermediates
-
Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients
-
Food Additives
- Industrial Coatings
- Agrochemicals
- Dyes and Pigments
- Surfactant
- Flavors and Fragrances
- Chemical Reagents
- Catalyst and Auxiliary
- Natural Products
- Inorganic Chemistry
-
Organic Chemistry
-
Biochemical Engineering
- Analytical Chemistry
- Cosmetic Ingredient
-
Pharmaceutical Intermediates
Promotion
ECHEMI Mall
Wholesale
Weekly Price
Exhibition
News
-
Trade Service
First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsAbroad, the September US non-farm payrolls data was lower than expected, the unemployment rate was higher than expected, so the dollar index rose and fell back, and the Fed is more likely to raise interest rates in December in the future, but this is basically digested by the market, and the focus of the market is still on the frequency of Fed rate hikes only once this year, not the Fed's rate hike itself
.
Therefore, its boost to the US dollar is relatively limited
.
We judge that the dollar index lacks a basis for a strong rally, and the reverse impact on commodities is weakened
.
Domestically, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index in September was 50.
4%, unchanged from the previous month and continued to be above the critical point, while the non-manufacturing PMI also rose
slightly.
The previously announced industrial added value in August, manufacturing investment in August, and profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country from January to August stabilized, while the Keqiang index, which is composed of power generation, loans and freight data, has continued to rebound
this year.
At present, it is judged that the domestic economy may stabilize, although this signal is still very weak
.
2.
Analysis of this month's market trend
(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (aluminum): According to cable network monitoring data, aluminum prices rose sharply before the holiday, the rally this week was suspended, and there was a risk of pullback during the week, represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, the price of A00 aluminum ingots at the beginning of the week was 13480 yuan / ton, and the price on Friday was 13380 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan, the overall decline was 0.
74%.
Macro: Abroad, recent weak economic data from the United States has not deterred expectations
of interest rate hikes.
The US September non-farm payrolls data was less than expected, but then two senior Fed officials spoke hawkishly, the Fed's December interest rate hike expectations increased significantly, the unilateral rise of the US dollar made the price of dollar-denominated metals appear high, aluminum prices under pressure to fall, difficult to rise
.
Domestically, recently, 22 provinces in China have successively introduced real estate regulation and control policies, affecting housing sales, and then affecting real estate investment and construction, which is closely related to the growth rate
of aluminum consumption.
The external environment is not very favorable
to the rise in the price of metals such as copper and aluminum.
Market: Overall trading this week has fallen
from before the National Day holiday.
At the beginning of the week, the holders of stable shipments, traders actively looking for low-priced sources, downstream enterprises have good willingness to purchase, aluminum prices continue to maintain a high level, and then the market's concerns about oversupply rose, bearish sentiment was strong, approaching the change of month, the willingness of holders to exchange cash increased greatly, active shipments, traders and downstream enterprises expect aluminum prices to be further lowered, maintain a wait-and-see attitude
.
On Friday, cargo holders actively shipped, the discount range expanded, and traders received more goods, but the wait-and-see mood was not abated when the month was approaching, and downstream enterprises purchased on demand and maintained a cautious attitude
.
1234Next View full article
1234Next View full article
