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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsDomestic: In terms of monetary policy, Goldman Sachs Gao Hua said that China's tightening monetary policy is to cope with the rising inflation rate and the tightening pressure caused by overseas economies, while the remaining strong economic growth rate also makes policy tightening worry less
.
As far as exchange rate policy is concerned, Goldman Sachs Gao Hua believes that the government hopes to continue the current exchange rate strategy, that is, while effectively maintaining the exchange rate fluctuation towards the market equilibrium, the exchange rate is strictly controlled
when conditions permit.
International: According to a report by the National Association of Realtors on Wednesday (Dec.
21), U.
S.
existing home sales unexpectedly rose in November, reaching their highest level
in nearly 10 years.
Expecting borrowing costs to rise further, buyers flooded the market to lock in low interest rates
.
Existing home sales rose for the third straight month meaning the housing market will contribute to
fourth-quarter economic growth.
2.
Analysis of this month's market trend
(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (aluminum): According to cable network monitoring data, aluminum prices have risen and fallen this week, basically showing a range fluctuation trend, and the overall increase is relatively limited
.
Represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, the price of A00 aluminum ingots at the beginning of the week was 12,790 yuan / ton, and the price on Friday was 12,870 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 80 yuan, or 0.
63%.
Macro: Abroad, existing home sales in the United States unexpectedly rose to the highest level in nearly 10 years in November, and the third consecutive month of growth in existing home sales means that the housing market will contribute to the economic growth in the fourth quarter.
The weekly average price is around $1721, and the market mainly focuses on the $1700 support level
.
Domestically, the State Council has once again taken reduction measures to control the domestic aluminum overcapacity problem for the electrolytic aluminum industry, or provide some support for the rebound of aluminum prices, but the domestic aluminum price trend is still weak
.
Market: At the beginning of this week, the price of aluminum fell sharply, and the spot price also fell below 12,700 yuan / ton, and downstream enterprises replenished a large number of goods at a low level, and the overall transaction picked up
.
With Wednesday and Thursday, aluminum prices began to rebound slightly, spot prices exceeded 13,000 yuan / ton, holders of goods sold at a high price, but downstream procurement was cautious again, the transaction turned cold, at the same time, a large number of replenishment a few days ago, coupled with the approaching holiday, downstream enterprises suspended the acceptance of orders, Friday the current aluminum market in the impact of aluminum prices reappeared, before the weekend users replenishment confidence was damaged, the current aluminum market transaction turned weak
。 It is rumored that the shipment volume in Xinjiang has declined, while downstream enterprises are still active in purchasing below the 10,000 integer, and it is expected that next week's spot will continue to maintain the premium driven by both supply and demand, and the spot premium range is expected to be 80-160 yuan / ton
next week.
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