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Cable raw materials (aluminum) weekly report (12.5-12.9)

 Last Update: 2022-12-03
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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1 3 cyclohexanedione

probability analysis

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First, macroeconomics

1.
The ISM non-manufacturing index in the United States in November was 57.
2, the highest since October 2015, expected to be 55.
5, and the previous value was 54.
8
.
The final Markit services PMI in November was 54.
6 vs 54.
8 expected, the preliminary value was 54.
7, and the final value in October was 54.
8
.
The US Markit composite PMI ended at 54.
9 in November, 54.
9 in the preliminary and 54.
9
in October.
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week of December 3 was 258,000, compared with 257,000 expected and 268,000
in the previous month.
The number of renewed jobless claims in the United States for the week of November 26 was 2.
005 million, compared with an expectation of 2.
048 million, and the previous value of 2.
081 million was revised to 2.
084 million
.

2.
The ECB left its main refinancing rate unchanged at 0.
0%, in line with expectations
.
Leave the overnight deposit rate unchanged at -0.
4%, in line with expectations
.
Leave the overnight loan rate unchanged at 0.
25%, in line with expectations
.
The ECB announced an extension of QE, buying 60 billion euros of assets
per month from April to December next year.
The ECB said it could expand the size of the program or extend it if
necessary.
The ECB will now continue to buy €80 billion a month until March next year
.

3.
China's November CPI was 2.
3% year-on-year, the highest since April this year, expected to be 2.
2%, and the previous value was 2.
1%.

China's November CPI was 0.
1% m/m vs -0.
1%
prior.
China's November PPI was 3.
3% year-on-year (corrected: not 1.
5%), the largest since October 2011, 2.
3% expected, 1.
2%
prior.
China's November PPI was 1.
5% m/m vs 0.
7%
prior.

2.
Analysis of this month's market trend

Second, this month's market trend analysis

(i) Market analysis

Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (aluminum): According to cable network monitoring data, Shanghai aluminum fell first and then rose this week, with large fluctuations, and spot prices fluctuated with futures during the week, basically maintaining a weak consolidation
in the range.
Represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, the price of A00 aluminum ingots at the beginning of the week was 13950 yuan / ton, and the price on Friday was 13410 yuan / ton, up 160 yuan, down 3.
87%.

Cable raw materials (aluminum)

Macro: Domestically, under the background of the depreciation pressure of the RMB, the central bank's "maintaining the exchange rate" means that the domestic medium-term capital tight pattern is difficult to break, which is unfavorable to the overall trend of
commodities.
Abroad, driven by the rebound in personal consumption expenditures and government spending, and the recovery of exports, the annualized quarter-on-quarter revised value of real GDP in the third quarter of the United States was 3.
2%, higher than expected, and the growth rate hit a two-year high, the rise in domestic demand in the United States led to a rebound in inflation, and many uncertainties in the external euro area are conducive to maintaining a strong pattern in the medium term, which will inhibit
the rise in commodity prices.

Market: At the beginning of this week, affected by the impact of the southbound source and the strengthening of the willingness of holders to realize at the end of the year, the holders continued to sell at reduced prices, causing the price to fall all the way, while the downstream has also remained hopeful, and the transaction situation is average
.
However, as the aluminum market has basically digested the source of automobile transportation that attracted the south in recent days, and at the same time affected by the high pressure of environmental protection, the price began to bottom out, boosted by the consumption of the aluminum rod market, and the transaction began to pick up
on Thursday afternoon.
On the last trading day of the week, home replenished actively before the weekend, warehouse inventory data showed a decline, and traders continued to take the dip
.
However, the transaction began to decrease in the afternoon, and the market still arrived one after another, and the inflow rate was lower than last week, and some of it was used for next week's
delivery.
As prices moved higher, the spot market returned to premium conditions
.

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