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Cable raw materials (aluminum) weekly report (4.10-4.14)

 Last Update: 2022-12-05
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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First, macroeconomics

Domestically: China's imports and exports in March both exceeded expectations, and the trade balance also turned negative to positive
.
According to a number of media estimates, in US dollar terms, China's trade balance in March was US$23.
93 billion, an expected US$12.
5 billion; China's imports in March were 20.
3% year-on-year, with an expectation of 15.
5%; China's March exports were 16.
4% year-on-year, versus 4.
3%
expected.
According to the General Administration of Customs, China's trade surplus from January to March was 454.
94 billion yuan, with imports increasing by 31.
1% year-on-year in renminbi terms and exports increasing by 14.
8%
year-on-year in renminbi terms.
Customs has not released import and export data for March today, but is currently releasing China's import and export data
for the first quarter.

Internationally: Data show that initial jobless claims in the United States fell for the third consecutive week in the week ended April 8, approaching the 44-year low reached in February, and being below the 300,000 mark for 110 consecutive weeks; In addition, the four-week average, which was less affected by temporary factors, also decreased by 3,000 people; All indications are that the sharp decline in the growth rate of US non-farm payrolls in March is purely unexpected, and the US labor market will continue to strengthen
.
Initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 in the week ended April 8 to 234,000 in the week ended April 8, approaching a 44-year low again, compared with analysts' estimates of 245,000
.
Below 300,000, the figure reflects good
conditions in the job market.

2.
Analysis of this month's market trend

Second, this month's market trend analysis

(i) Market analysis

Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (aluminum): According to cable network monitoring data, this week's domestic aluminum prices first fell and then rose, the aluminum market ignored the weak market during the week, the price once rebounded and soared, and then due to negative factors, the price upside was limited
.
Represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, the price of A00 aluminum ingots at the beginning of the week was 13820 yuan / ton, and the price on Friday was 13890 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan, an increase of 0.
51%.

Cable raw materials (aluminum)

Macro aspect: Abroad, the United States has hinted that if the Syrian government uses chemical weapons again or deploys barrel bombs, it will be open to further strikes against Syria, and rising geopolitical risks and rising tensions in the French presidential election have heightened market concerns
.
Domestically, this week in the aluminum market social inventory continued to increase and black plunge background, aluminum prices once fluctuated down, due to the improvement of China's trade situation during the week, coupled with the decline in social inventory and market supply-side rumors, the aluminum market ignored the weak market and ushered in a sharp rebound
.
Data show that China's import and export in March both exceeded expectations, trade balance also turned negative to positive, the first quarter continued last year's stable and good trend, economic development prospects to boost market sentiment, support the base metals market, aluminum prices once rose, recovering the previous decline
.

Market: At the beginning of this week, aluminum prices fell all the way, downstream bearish on the future market led to a light aluminum market, and holders of goods have more funds on hand, the market supply is still more, holding goods continue to ship vigorously, but few price cuts to make profits, starting on Thursday, aluminum prices jumped, traders raised prices and smelters also controlled shipments to raise prices, downstream just need to replenish inventory for weekend production, the market picked up
。 On Friday, the market due to the close delivery period, the willingness of holders to hold up the price is not reduced, the morning low-price receiving part is canceled with the late quotation of aluminum pulling up, the spot premium continues to expand, the downstream continues to chase up, the market trading situation is more active, the afternoon quotation is generally high, difficult to receive goods
.

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