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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsDomestic aspects:
1.
China's imports continued to increase sharply in September, while exports grew slower than expected
.
China's exports in US dollar terms grew 8.
1% year-on-year in September, 10% expected; Imports grew 18.
7% year-on-year in September, compared with expectations of 14.
7%, and the trade surplus narrowed to its lowest
since March 2017.
2.
The National Bureau of Statistics announced that China's manufacturing PMI index in September was 52.
4, a five-year high
.
The good data from China indicates a good momentum for the overall economy
.
This has also boosted investors' consumption expectations in China and has also provided a boost
to copper prices.
International aspects:
1.
The overall foreign economic data this week is good, first the US ISM manufacturing index rose sharply to 60.
8 in September, higher than expected, the highest level since May 2004; and then the September PPI monthly rate increased by 0.
4%, also higher than expected, such good data also brought good news
to the Fed's interest rate hike.
2.
The Fed interest rate meeting also expressed its views on whether to raise interest rates in December, although the attitude is more cautious, but it is undeniable that the probability of raising interest rates is still very large, and said that reducing the balance sheet will not damage financial markets
.
This has a certain impact on the dollar, and the weakness of the dollar has a certain support for copper prices
.
Second, this week's market trend analysis
Second, this week's market trend analysis(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (copper): This week's domestic copper price trend has improved significantly compared with the external market, and the overall upward momentum
is obvious.
Taking the Yangtze River spot market as an example, according to cable network monitoring data, the average copper price at the beginning of the week was 52,500 yuan / ton, and the average copper price on Friday was 53,680 yuan / ton, up 1,180 yuan / ton, an increase of about
2.
25%.
Macro: Abroad, the minutes of the September FOMC meeting showed major disagreements within the Fed on raising interest rates within the year, while Trump's tax reform plan was once again blocked, questioning his ability to govern, the US dollar under pressure and high levels drove commodity market sentiment higher, copper prices gained momentum and hit a new high
in more than a month.
Domestically, on the first trading day after the double festival, Shanghai copper opened above the 52,000 yuan line, because it is expected that demand will rebound significantly after the holiday, consumption is expected to improve significantly, and the momentum of copper prices is obviously strong
.
In addition, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its global GDP growth forecast for 2017 and raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2017 from 6.
7% to 6.
8%, and the IMF's fourth increase in China's economic growth forecast this year boosted the market's optimistic outlook for metal demand, and copper prices were poised to break
through further.
Market: In the first week after the National Day, market activity is more general
.
Although copper prices at the beginning of the week were at the low point of the week, the market trading performance was not good
because some merchants did not return to the market immediately after the holiday.
In the following days, copper prices continued to rise and were unable to receive goods downstream, merchants mainly purchased on demand, and traders were not very active, so the overall spot copper market was not active during the week
.
Although since the end of September, the profit window for imported copper has been opened, but this has not led to a large influx of imported copper sources, in fact, the domestic market is still not much, so the weekly holders generally sell at a high price, so that the spot copper in the week once reported a premium of more than
300 yuan.
However, as the delivery period approaches, the next month spread of Shanghai copper close to 400 also makes it difficult for spot copper to continue to maintain a high premium state for the current month contract
.
As far as the future market is concerned, the import copper profit window continues to open, the increase in the supply of imported copper is only a matter of time, the current discount state of the external disk also shows the actual market demand and shows signs of obvious improvement, so the rise in copper prices in the future market still needs the cooperation of the consumer side
.
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