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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsAbroad, US President Trump's early speech made the market once believe that the United States will invest heavily in infrastructure construction, and copper demand will increase
significantly.
But Mr.
Trump's rhetoric has changed recently, with plans to appoint two New York-based developers, LeFrak and Roth, to execute "$1 trillion in infrastructure," largely financed by private investment
.
From the perspective of investment income, the infrastructure investment cycle is long, the income is low, and the willingness of private investment is low, which means that the expectation of the implementation of trillions of infrastructure investment in the United States has changed, uncertainty has increased, and long-term copper demand is not as optimistic
as expected in the previous period.
Domestically, China's demand may fall short of expectations
.
In 2017, the situation of the domestic non-ferrous metals industry is complicated, and there are still many
uncertainties.
On the one hand, as China's economic development enters the "new normal", the growth rate of demand for non-ferrous metals has slowed
down significantly.
The original growth momentum is weakened, the formation of new growth momentum is slow, and the situation of oversupply of non-ferrous metals will still exist
.
On the other hand, the impetus for the rise in prices of major non-ferrous metals is still insufficient, and the task of "de-capacity" is arduous and cannot be achieved
overnight.
Second, this week's market trend analysis
Second, this week's market trend analysis(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (copper): This week (January 16-January 20), the domestic copper market performed weakly, and the price fell under pressure after a weak
upward trend.
Taking the Yangtze River spot market as an example, according to the monitoring data of the cable network, the average copper price at the beginning of the week was 47630 yuan / ton, and the average copper price on Friday was 46430 yuan / ton, down 1200 yuan / ton, a decline of about
2.
52%.
On the macro front: Fed Chair Janet Yellen made hawkish speeches this week that the Fed should continue to stick to a prudent and gradual rate hike plan
.
The year-on-year increase in US CPI in December 2016 hit its highest level in two and a half years, suggesting that inflation is moving closer to the Fed's target, supporting the pace of interest rate
hikes.
Hawkish comments have put some pressure on the copper market, and copper prices are weak and volatile
.
In addition, because Trump's speech did not mention infrastructure, which suppressed market sentiment, and since Brexit seems to have no expected "hard gas", market risk aversion has heated up, which also caused copper prices to fall
.
Of course, the recent domestic capital does not support the upward
trend of copper prices.
With the Spring Festival approaching, the rising medium-term interest rate of the Shanghai Interbank Breakdown Rate also supports this view, and in the short term, the exit of funds is not conducive to the upward
movement of copper prices.
Market: The US dollar is relatively weak this week, once falling nearly 100, while metal prices have continued to fall, especially in the Chinese market, with the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, futures market funds gradually flowed, market vitality is poor, resulting in weak price volatility
.
In the spot market, the risk aversion in the market before the holiday rose, and the long funds reduced their positions and exited the market, causing copper prices to fall from last week's high, and the performance of Shanghai copper during the week was weak, and the market transaction was also significantly weakened
.
At the beginning of the week, the market transaction has been not performing well, and the holder had to reduce the discount shipment, and the good copper discount once reached about
150 yuan.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, Shanghai copper pulled back for two consecutive days, and the price fell to attract a small number of downstream enterprises to enter the market to replenish the warehouse, spot copper discount rose slightly, and market transactions improved slightly
.
On Thursday and Friday, downstream enterprises successively completed replenishment, the market vacation enterprises increased significantly, the supply and demand of the copper market were tightened, and the market transaction continued to deteriorate, but the spot copper discount was basically stable
.
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