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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsDomestically, in the first week of the new year, China's economic data released in December last year performed well, showing that the development of the manufacturing industry has stabilized and recovered, but considering the gradual tightening of real estate policy, fiscal policy and monetary policy expansion or slowdown, there is still uncertainty about whether the endogenous momentum of China's economy can be effectively hedged next year, and we need to be wary of the risk of
economic downturn in the later period.
Abroad, the US small non-farm ADP data fell significantly in December, indicating that the US labor market is tightening and is close to full employment, and employment growth may continue to slow
in 2017.
While investors are currently optimistic about the positive economic impact of Trump's policies, there are still some doubts about the actual implementation of the policies, so the current optimism cannot be sustained
.
Second, this week's market trend analysis
Second, this week's market trend analysis(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (copper): This week (January 3-January 6) domestic copper prices fluctuated weakly, taking the Yangtze River spot market as an example, according to cable network monitoring data, the average copper price at the beginning of the week was 45700 yuan / ton, and the average copper price on Friday was 45260 yuan / ton, down 440 yuan / ton, down about 0.
96%.
Macro aspect: Last week, countries released important economic data, and the overall performance was mixed
.
In China, the December 2016 manufacturing index performed gratifyingly, with the official manufacturing PMI remaining stable above the boom and bust line, and the Caixin manufacturing PMI also recording a good increase
.
In the United States, the manufacturing index also performed well, and the dollar edged higher
.
The dollar weakened
amid concerns that the Fed's December 2016 minutes were not hawkish enough and Fed officials were concerned about fiscal policy after Trump took office.
The US small non-farm payrolls data underperformed expectations and the previous reading, and the dollar continued to fall to a near half-month low
.
However, due to the good prospects of the US economy and interest rate hikes, the market is still bullish on the medium-term rally of the US dollar, so the negative impact
of the US dollar on copper prices cannot be ignored.
In terms of the market, this week is the first trading day in 17 years, merchants basically have no financial troubles, so the willingness of holders to ship has been greatly reduced, so the source of spot copper market this week has tightened compared with last week, and the spot copper discount has also narrowed, and good copper once reported a discount of 20 yuan
.
Shipment sentiment in the market smelters this week was poor, mainly from traders, so the market was mainly based on imported copper
.
Although the current loss of imported copper is still large, the renminbi has performed strongly this week, soaring more than 1,000 points on Thursday, reflecting the government's determination
to maintain the stability of the yuan.
Affected by this, copper prices have been weak inside and strong outside this week, so the loss of imported copper may be expected to narrow
in the future.
On the demand side, the Spring Festival is approaching, many downstream companies have been able to start the holiday, and market demand has deteriorated
significantly compared with last week.
In addition, although many merchants have a stocking plan, they are still bearish on copper prices before the year, so they are still on the
sidelines.
Overall, the deterioration of market demand this week is more obvious, and market transactions are mainly concentrated among
traders.
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