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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsDomestic aspects:
1.
According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.
5% in May, rebounding from the same period last year; Corporate profitability is also improving, with profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increasing by 24.
4%
year-on-year from January to April.
Generally speaking, the real economy has shown a stable and improving trend
.
2.
Data show that China's urban fixed asset investment from January to May was 8.
6% year-on-year, down 0.
3 percentage points from the previous month; private fixed asset investment from January to May increased by 6.
8%, down 0.
1 percentage points
from the same period last year.
The growth rate of investment fell slightly in May, but the investment structure continued to improve, and the national economy continued its overall stable development trend
.
3.
Data show that China added 1.
1 trillion yuan in new RMB loans in May, and the scale of social financing was 1.
06 trillion yuan, significantly lower than the 1.
39 trillion yuan
last month.
M2 slowed for the fourth straight month in May, this time hitting a record low, as the ongoing economic downturn raised concerns about
Chinese metal demand.
International aspects:
1.
The annual rate of PPI in the United States in May grew by 2.
4%, down 0.
1 percentage points from the previous month, and the rise in the dollar and oil prices raised producer prices at the beginning of the year, but the fall in oil prices in recent weeks is suppressing producer prices, indicating that inflationary pressures in the US economy have eased
.
U.
S.
retail sales contracted 0.
3 percent month-on-month in May, down 0.
1 percentage points from the previous month and the largest
month-on-month decline since January 2016, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday.
The poor performance of retail sales data in May may deal a blow
to the acceleration of economic growth in the United States in the second quarter.
3.
On June 14, the Fed announced a 25 basis point interest rate hike as scheduled, raising the ceiling of the federal interest rate to 1.
25% and the discount rate from 1.
5% to 1.
75%.
In addition, Fed Chair Yellen said at a subsequent press conference that she would implement a balance sheet reduction plan within the year, while not ruling out the possibility
of further gradual interest rate hikes.
Second, this week's market trend analysis
Second, this week's market trend analysis(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (copper): This week (June 12-June 16) domestic copper prices first fell and then rose, the price fell all the way after the opening of the week, fell to the lowest level in nearly four weeks on Thursday, and rebounded on Friday supported by good news and returned to a two-week high
.
Taking the Yangtze River spot market as an example, according to cable network monitoring data, the average copper price at the beginning of the week was 46230 yuan / ton, and the average copper price on Friday was 45590 yuan / ton, down 640 yuan / ton, a decline of about
1.
38%.
Macro: Domestically, the National Bureau of Statistics released a number of data on China's macroeconomy in May, although the recovery of manufacturing investment reflects the improvement of the real economy, but the planned investment in newly started projects has slowed down, indicating that there is still downward pressure on the economy in the future, and the continuous increase in the regulation of the property market has clouded the outlook for industrial metal demand, and metals such as copper and aluminum are under pressure
.
Abroad, copper prices were under pressure on expectations that the dollar index would strengthen ahead of the results of the Fed's monetary policy meeting
.
This week, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, and the market is optimistic that the US economy has grown moderately this year, employment growth has been solid, the US index has rebounded from its lows, and copper prices are under pressure and weak
.
In terms of the market: copper prices jumped sharply above 46,000 yuan / ton on Monday, holders actively quoted, and continued to adjust prices and shipments as prices fell down, and the downstream performance was cautious and fearful of heights during the day, mainly purchasing on demand, and the transaction was general; On Tuesday, prices continued to fall, discounts continued to loosen, holders' enthusiasm for shipments weakened, downstream wait-and-see was the mainstay, trading was cautious, and the transaction was not good; On Wednesday, near delivery and exchange month, although the holder actively quoted, but the downstream wait-and-see is the mainstay, and the acceptance is considered after more delivery and exchange months, and the overall procurement confidence is weak; On Thursday, the closing day delivery is still the same; On Friday, the trading situation was still average, but after the copper price fell back in the afternoon, the holders controlled shipments, the market supply was less, the overall spot premium increased, traders and downstream were slightly replenished, and trading picked up
.
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