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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsInternational aspects:
1.
Existing home sales in the United States rose 1.
1% to 5.
62 million units in May, and the median selling price recorded a new high
.
Continued growth in U.
S.
housing market demand as wages rose steadily, unemployment at low points, and increased consumer confidence in the U.
S.
economic recovery
.
2.
The preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in June was 94.
5, far lower than the market expectation of 97.
1
.
The University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell by the biggest since October, signaling that the optimism following Trump's election as president has come to an end
.
More consumers are worried about a recession in the U.
S.
over the next five years
.
Domestic aspects:
1.
Data show that in May, the effect of real estate regulation and control policies continued to show, and the year-on-year increase in the price of new commercial housing in first- and second-tier cities all fell, of which the price of new commercial housing in Shanghai and Beijing was flat month-on-month, Shenzhen fell month-on-month, and Guangzhou rose 0.
9%
month-on-month.
The domestic real estate market continues to cool down
.
2.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in the first five months of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 147,000 and 136,000 units, an increase of 12% and 8% year-on-year; Production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 122,000 units and 111,000 units, up 23% and 21%
y/y.
Automobile sales exceeded market expectations, and the sentiment of the copper market improved
.
Second, this week's market trend analysis
Second, this week's market trend analysis(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (copper): This week (June 19-June 23) domestic copper prices fluctuated higher, the price maintained a range of high finishing during the week, and the copper tail of Friday suddenly increased its position sharply, and the copper market closed up
at the end of the day.
Taking the Yangtze River spot market as an example, according to cable network monitoring data, the average copper price at the beginning of the week was 45,370 yuan / ton, and the average copper price on Friday was 45,870 yuan / ton, up 500 yuan / ton, an increase of about
1.
10%.
Macro: Abroad, oil prices suffered a heavy hit this week, falling to a nearly 10-month low on Wednesday night, but the slowdown in the dollar rally brought some positive, despite the hawkish comments of the Federal Reserve, but the recent data released show that the US economic recovery momentum has slowed down, and more assessment agencies said that the rise in inflation in the US economy is worsening, the Fed will raise interest rates in the second half of the year to face certain resistance, the dollar has been under pressure to hover around the 97 line, in addition, crude oil prices recorded a slight rebound on Thursday, base metals were supported and rose
。 Domestically, the People's Bank of China released liquidity in the open market at the beginning of the week, driving a general rebound in commodities, in addition, customs data released, China's refined copper imports in May 265053 tons, compared with April imported refined copper volume up 30.
81% month-on-month, down 16.
98% year-on-year, copper ore imports 1153709 tons, down 19.
24% year-on-year, the market has signs that copper market supply is constantly tightening, copper market increased positions, won 640 million funds favored, short-term or will continue to maintain strong operation
。
In terms of the market: approaching the mid-year settlement period, the financial pressure gradually increased, the holders were forced to reduce the cash copper discount, speculators because the discount range was not enough psychological price, the attractiveness was limited, downstream enterprises maintained on-demand delivery, and the characteristics of oversupply were prominent
。 This week's copper spot market performance is poor, copper price high volatility makes the market fearful, traders at the end of the quarter generally tight money, trading performance is also average, smelters control shipments, market supply gradually reduced, but still not see downstream replenishment behavior, discount continues to relax; On Friday, the demand off-season made the downstream pickup situation unsatisfactory, traders were difficult to ship, and the surge in copper prices in the afternoon deepened the market's fear of heights, and there were few transactions
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