Cell: SARS-CoV-2 variants similar to Delta variants can exacerbate the new crown pandemic

In a new study, researchers from the Chen Zengxi School of Public Health of Harvard University in the United States constructed a mathematical model and found that a SARS-CoV-2 variant with similar characteristics to the Delta variant---enhanced transmission and The ability to infect previously infected/vaccinated people --- will cause a more serious pandemic, resulting in more infections and breakthroughs than the SARS-CoV-2 variant that has one of these two characteristics alone Sexual infection/reinfection

The first author and corresponding author of the paper, and a postdoctoral researcher in the Department of Epidemiology at the Chen Zengxi School of Public Health at Harvard University, said Mary Bushman, "So far, immune escape---a variant that evades the immune system and leads to reinfection or The ability to break through infection --- the evidence is like a red flag (dangerous signal)

As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, variants of the original wild-type SARS-CoV-2 virus have emerged

The analysis simulates several different hypothetical variants of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The picture is from Cell, 2021, doi:10.

Bushman and his team determined that variants with only enhanced transmission may be more dangerous than variants that partially evade the immune system

According to this mathematical model, it is also very useful to predict vaccination in the case of a SARS-CoV-2 variant similar to the Delta variant, because vaccination will prevent a more transmissible virus from potentially causing more infections.

The co-author of the paper, William P.

Reference materials:

Mary Bushman et al.