Chairman of China Animal Husbandry Association: This round of pig price decline is longer than before.

 　　Since the beginning of this year, the price of live pigs has fallen rapidly, entering the downward channel of this round of pig cycle
.
Especially since June, the price has continued to fall and the industry has suffered losses.
Then, what is the reason for the short cycle of this round of pigs and the drastic changes in the trend?ZRz China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　On September 27, at the 10th Western China (International) Pig Industry Forum, Li Xirong, president of the China Animal Husbandry Association, said that there are many reasons for this round of pig cycle, and they are very complicated, but the general one is overcapacity
.
ZRz China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

ZRz China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　When reviewing his analysis, Li Xirong said that the price of live pigs has fallen sharply this year, and now some areas have fallen below 5 yuan/500 grams
.
The price drop came so fast and so drastically that it was beyond everyone's expectations, whether it was the government, enterprises, or related institutions
.
ZRz China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　He said that after the African Swine Fever outbreak in 2018, the price of live pigs rose sharply, and there was a stage of huge profits.
The pig industry entered the whole industry impulsively, especially large companies, not only impulsively, but also very fast and expanding rapidly.
coupled with unconventional measures, commercial pig breeding used to do, therefore, the resumption of production guarantee supply in the early time is reached
.
ZRz China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　"The rapid recovery of our production capacity is unexpected
.
Especially the companies that expanded production in 2019 and 2020 have reached production quickly, and their production capacity has been released concentratedly
.
At the same time, due to the huge profit stage, many companies have adopted it.
The second fattening of cattle and pigs means a substantial increase in body weight and an increase in the entire pork supply
.
" Li Xirong said
.
ZRz China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The person in charge of a pig breeding company also said in an interview with China Business News that during the recovery of pig production capacity in the previous two years, large-scale pig breeding companies expanded rapidly, which drove farmers to quickly recover and expand pig breeding, resulting in explosive growth in production capacity.

.
ZRz China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The person in charge also said that due to the high price of piglets at that time, a piglet cost about 1500-1600 yuan, causing everyone to raise big fat pigs
.
In the past, a live pig for slaughter was about 120 kg, but now it is raised to 150-170 kg, even 200 kg.
Now the weight of a single head is 1.
5 times the original, which has also greatly increased the supply of pork
.
ZRz China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Lan Mingjian, president of the Sichuan Animal Husbandry Association, also said at the meeting that a large amount of cross-border capital has also entered in the event of huge profits
.
Moreover, the capital misjudged the situation, believing that the temporary closure of the farmer households was a permanent withdrawal
.
At this time last year, the industry prejudged the market.
Some thought it would be 2-3 years, and some thought it would be 3-5 years, and the result was only more than one year
.
ZRz China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　While overcapacity, consumption has been suppressed
.
Li Xirong said that due to the new crown pneumonia epidemic, group consumption such as the consumption of primary and middle school students has been affected.
More importantly, the tourism industry, especially the catering industry, has been greatly impacted, and there is an update of consumption concepts.
Consumers who are highly dependent on pork pay more attention to health preservation, while the new generation has a decline in pork consumption
.
ZRz China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Changes in the relationship between supply and demand determine the trend of pig prices
.
Since the beginning of this year, pig prices have continued to fall .
Lan Mingjian said, “It started to fall in January this year, but there was no loss.
It only started to lose money after June.
This has attracted everyone’s attention
.
”ZRz China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The price of live pigs in Sichuan Province, the country's largest pig-raising province, has been falling for more than three months
.
According to the monitoring of the Sichuan Provincial Price Monitoring Bureau, the average price of Sichuan Province last week (September 23) was 715 yuan/50 kg, which was a decrease of 10 yuan/50 kg from last week.
This week, the province’s average pig-to-food ratio was 4.
58:1.
Last week, there was a decrease of 0.
05 points; the average pig-feed ratio was 3.
71:1, which was a decrease of 0.
05 points from last week
.
ZRz China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In order to cope with the fall in pig prices, Sichuan Province has entered the first-level warning area and level of excessive declines stipulated in the recently formulated live pig regulation plan on September 10th
.
The government has taken measures such as purchasing and storing, but so far there is no sign of stabilization
.
ZRz China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Li Xirong said: “I think the duration of this round of price decline is definitely longer than the pig cycle in the past
.
This is because large companies, small and medium-sized enterprises, and even general farms have a consistent judgment and The way is to do it
.
Because the money was made in the last round, there is capital to do it, so if everyone does it, it will take a long time
.
"ZRz China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　"Therefore, it is difficult to judge when it will bottom out and when there will be a rebound
.
This price downturn may last for a long time, because production capacity is still being released, and some companies are even in the process.
Still expanding
.
"ZRz China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　On September 19, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the "Implementation Plan for Pig Production Capacity Regulation (Interim)", which requires the establishment of a pig production capacity regulation mechanism aimed at stabilizing the stock of capable sows from the production process, and delineate the bottom line of production capacity to improve And strengthen control policies and measures, effectively respond to the new challenges of increasingly complex volatility in the live pig market, and prevent production ups and downs
.
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　　The plan requires that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with reference to the production data of the national pork production of 55 million tons in a normal year, the target for the number of breeding sows is set, that is, the normal number of breeding sows is stabilized at 41 million.
Around the head, the minimum holding quantity is not less than 37 million heads
.
ZRz China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The method for determining the number of reproductive sows in each province is based on the "Notice of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on Printing and Distributing the Task Target of Stable Pig Production and Supply from 2020 to 2021".
, To determine the normal holding amount of reproductive sows; to determine the minimum holding amount based on 90% of the normal holding amount of reproductive sows
.
ZRz China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　According to the requirements of pig production control, the changes in the stock of reproductive sows are divided into three areas: green, yellow and red, and corresponding control measures are taken
.
ZRz China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Regarding the production capacity of large-scale pig farming, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will file all the existing large-scale pig farms (households) with an annual output of more than 500 pigs in the country.
According to the number of large-scale pig farms (households) registered in the national pig farm monitoring system in June 2021 , Combined with the development trend of large-scale pig breeding, determine the number of large-scale pig farms (households) nationwide and in various provinces
.
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