China Plastics Price Index (June 21-July 20)

　　In this issue (June 21 to July 20), the Federal Reserve announced the largest interest rate hike in nearly 30 years, and international oil prices fell under pressure, with prices falling below $100 per barrel
.
Crude oil fell as a whole, and the three major plastics futures markets continued to decline in this issue.
The polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market continued to bottom out, while polypropylene (PP) and linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) traded sideways in the range.

.
From the market point of view, the transaction situation of downstream enterprises is average
.
In this issue, the market situation of Guangdong Plastics Exchange was adjusted within a narrow range, and the transaction performance was flat
.
As of the close at the end of the period, the China Plastics Price Index of the Plastics Exchange reported 1289.
51 points
.

　　From the macroeconomic point of view, the domestic economy is still under pressure, and the economic data is not optimistic
.
At the same time, due to multiple influences such as the ongoing epidemic and the off-season of downstream production, demand has not improved
.
Under this round of interest rate hike cycle, terminal companies mostly maintain low-suction or a small amount of liquidation
.
Under the pressure of social inventory, it is expected that the plastic market will be adjusted within a narrow range in the short term
.

　　PVC continued to fall The futures market fell sharply, and demand has not improved for a long time
.
With the reduction of domestic equipment maintenance, the factory operating rate has increased, and the social inventory has continued to increase
.
Under the superposition of multiple negative factors, traders continued to lower market quotations
.
At the end of this period, with the slight rebound of futures, the price of PVC spot market has a tendency to stop falling and rebound
.
On the whole, the downstream is mainly based on just-needed purchases, with obvious resistance to high prices, and the transaction situation is average
.
As of the end of the period, the mainstream self-delivery price of type 5 ordinary calcium carbide in South China and East China markets was 6,400-6,500 yuan (ton price, the same below), down about 1,000 yuan from the previous period
.

　　From the market point of view, the current domestic PVC enterprises are relatively stable in operation, and the market supply is sufficient
.
Although a few manufacturers had news of load reduction in the early stage, they did not have a substantial boost to the market
.
The price of upstream calcium carbide has been lowered, and the cost support is weak
.
The downstream pipe, cable and other industries were affected by the weak real estate market, and the overall operating rate remained low
.
On the whole, the PVC market still lacks sufficient favorable support, and it is expected that the market will continue to run in a narrow range in the later period
.

　　PP continues to be weak .
The futures market is running weakly.
The ex-factory price of petrochemicals is partially lowered.
The offers of traders are weak, and the willingness of downstream factories to receive goods is flat.
The firm offer focuses on negotiation
.
As of the end of the period, the mainstream quotation of domestic PP wire drawing materials was 8050~8450 yuan, down 325 yuan from the previous issue
.

　　In terms of supply, petrochemical enterprises did not see a significant increase in the level of plant start-up load
.
At present, the new 150,000-ton/year PP plant of Weifang Shufukang is producing at full capacity, and the 300,000-ton/year new plant of Bohai Chemical is in a state of shutdown for maintenance, which has limited impact on the supply side
.

　　At present, the inventory of petrochemical enterprises is at a slightly high level of neutrality, while the inventory of ports has declined.
The short-term import volume has not changed much.
However, with the decline in foreign offers and downstream purchases, the transaction has improved slightly
.
In terms of demand, the current level of construction of various industries is generally low, and the enthusiasm for downstream purchases to enter the market is not high
.
It is expected that the next PP market will be dominated by shocks
.

　　LLDPE fell weakly , the futures market fell weakly, the ex-factory prices of petrochemical companies also declined, traders' offers continued to loosen, and downstream factories were more cautious
.
As of the end of the period, the mainstream domestic LLDPE quotations were 8,000-8,550 yuan, down 450 yuan from the previous period
.

　　In terms of supply, the operating load level of petrochemical enterprises continued to be low, and the operating rate was less than 80%
.
The price of crude oil fluctuated at a high level in the current period.
At present, the production profit margin of oil-based plants has not yet been opened.
Some petrochemical enterprises continue to reduce load operations, and there is little pressure on the supply side to rebound
.
The short-term import supply is expected to rebound slightly, the market transaction is not good, and the port inventory is limited
.

　　In terms of demand, the start-up level of the agricultural film industry has not improved much, the start-up of the packaging film industry is relatively stable, and there is still a certain rigid need for support, and the terminal demand of the pipe industry is weak
.
At present, the overall construction level of the downstream industry is not high, and the demand support is insufficient.
It is expected that the LLDPE market will be slightly sorted out in the next issue
.

　　(China Plastics Price Index Research Center)