China-U.S. ethylene capacity gap narrows

■The composition of the world's ethylene raw materials tends to stabilize

The growth rate of world ethylene production capacity has slowed down, and the new production capacity mainly comes from China.

In 2020, the world will add 7 million tons of ethylene production capacity per year, and the total production capacity will rise to 197 million tons per year, an increase of 3.
4% over the previous year, and the growth rate is significantly lower than that of the previous year.

The total number of ethylene plants in the world is about 329, and the average scale of ethylene plants is about 600,000 tons per year.

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The composition of the world's ethylene raw materials tends to be stable.

At present, the world's ethylene raw materials are still dominated by naphtha and ethane.

■The operating rate of ethylene plants in the world has generally declined

The world demand for ethylene has increased slightly.

In 2020, due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, the growth rate of ethylene demand has slowed down significantly.
The overall decline in ethylene demand in other parts of the world except China will partially offset the increase in China's ethylene demand.

　　The average price of ethylene in Asia-Pacific and Western Europe dropped significantly, while the average price of ethylene in North America rose slightly.

In 2020, the global ethylene market price will be low first and then high, showing a "V-shaped" trend in the first half of the year.

　　The operating rate of ethylene plants in the world has generally declined.

In 2020, due to the weak demand caused by the epidemic and the continued increase in production capacity, ethylene plants are generally under-operated.

　　The world's ethylene gross profit level has generally decreased, and the cost advantage of ethane cracking in the United States compared with naphtha cracking in Asia-Pacific and Western Europe has been reduced.

In 2020, the epidemic and low oil prices have caused great changes in the cost and profit of ethylene production in the United States, Asia and Europe.

　　■The pace of ethylene project construction slows down

　　In 2020, ethylene production and project construction will be affected by the impact of the new crown epidemic.

Some ethylene construction projects in the United States have been suspended, and reductions in refinery production and weak demand have caused European and Japanese ethylene producers to reduce or suspend production; the Middle East, Asia-Pacific emerging economies and developing countries Ethylene construction projects slowed down but continued to advance.

　　The second wave of ethylene projects in the United States started but the pace of ethylene construction slowed down, and the completion of new export terminals increased ethylene exports.
From 2017 to 2020, the first wave of ethylene expansion in the United States will increase production capacity by approximately 10.
9 million tons per year.
The second wave of new ethylene projects in the United States has been launched, almost all concentrated on the Gulf Coast.
However, due to the impact of the epidemic and the decline in competitive advantages, it is expected to be completed The new capacity is much lower than the first wave.

　　Countries along the “Belt and Road” continue to promote the construction of ethylene projects.
In 2020, petrochemical project construction supply chains, materials and equipment, and labor are all affected by the new crown epidemic.
The construction process of ethylene projects in Asia, Russia and the Middle East is slow but continues to advance.
The reduction in OPEC crude oil production has reduced the output of ethane in the Middle East, and the output of ethylene in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE has declined.

　　■The Asia-Pacific region will continue to lead the growth of ethylene capacity

　　The world's ethylene production capacity will continue to grow rapidly.
In 2021, it is estimated that the world's ethylene production capacity will increase by about 9.
5 million tons/year, and the total production capacity is expected to exceed 200 million tons/year.
The new capacity will mainly come from China, the United States and India.
In the next five years, the Asia-Pacific region will continue to lead the growth of ethylene capacity.
China will build multiple ethylene projects.
India will be the second largest country in the Asia-Pacific region to increase ethylene capacity.
Its ethylene capacity will increase from 8.
2 million tons/year in 2020.
14 million tons/year by 2025.
South Korea will become the third largest country in Asia with new ethylene production capacity.
The ethylene industry in the United States, China, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Russia and other countries and regions maintained steady development.
The world ethylene map will maintain a quadruple pattern of Asia-Pacific, North America, the Middle East, and Western Europe, while the position of Asia-Pacific and North America in the world's ethylene production will continue to improve.

　　Under the influence of the epidemic, the world's ethylene industry will continue to operate at a low level, and ethylene production capacity is facing adjustments.
In the next 5 years, due to the slowdown of the world economy and the unstable trade situation, it is difficult for the demand for ethylene to improve significantly.
The price of ethylene will remain at a low level.
The gross profit of ethylene will continue to be under pressure in areas with excessively fast production capacity.
Hovering low.
If the new crown epidemic is not controlled, the imbalance between supply and demand in the global ethylene market will further worsen, and the possibility that older, smaller and higher-cost ethylene production plants will be forced to shut down will increase.

　　The direct cracking of crude oil to produce ethylene and the direct production of chemicals will make the petrochemical industry more competitive.
Some refining and chemical projects in the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East that mainly target the production of ethylene and other chemicals will be completed and put into operation, especially Saudi Aramco’s crude oil-to-chemicals and ExxonMobil’s crude oil direct cracking to produce olefins projects, which will surely lead to ethylene The production of ethylene and derivatives will increase rapidly, the supply will be more abundant, and the supply pattern of ethylene polymer products will undergo major changes.
Such petrochemical projects have scale and cost advantages, and their comprehensive economic benefits will be significantly higher than traditional refining and chemical integration projects.
The global petrochemical industry Competition will intensify.

　　■my country will form a trilateral market structure featuring state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, and foreign-funded enterprises

　　During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the ethylene industry structure will undergo major changes and market competition will become more intense.
As ExxonMobil, BASF and other foreign-funded projects and domestic projects under construction are successively completed and put into production, my country's total ethylene production capacity will exceed the 60 million tons/year mark in 2025, and foreign equity production capacity will reach 10.
74 million tons/year.
, The proportion rose to 15.
0%, and the production capacity of private enterprises reached 23.
36 million tons/year, accounting for 32.
7%.
By then, a tripartite domestic market structure of state-owned enterprises, private enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises will be formed.

　　my country's ethylene industry should focus on the construction of a major strategic deployment of "a new development pattern with domestic and international cycles as the main body and mutual promotion of domestic and international double cycles", and grasp the entire industry in accordance with the idea of ​​"high-end, digital, clustered, and international" The transformation and upgrading of the chain, high-quality development, realizes the big and strong.

　　Transfer from: China Petrochemical News