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On January 11th, Archcoal, the second largest coal company in the United States, filed for bankruptcy.
It boldly guessed that China’s coal may change from net imports to net exports in the future, but in fact, it is still not so optimistic.
What we want to express is: the trend of reducing coal imports It is likely to accelerate
.
? The import and export pattern of China's coal industry is quietly changing
.
Let me talk about a few data: 1.
In 2015, the net export of coke was 9.
85 million tons, an increase of 15% year-on-year, and the year-on-year increase in December was as high as 43% (although the growth rate in the second half of the year was not ideal), 2.
After the import volume reached a high of 30-35 million tons, it has been declining.
The average net coal import in the past three months was only 15 million tons
.
? The pattern of foreign coal supply and demand is also changing: Indonesia's power company plans to build thermal power generation on a large scale, and India has begun to attach great importance to China's coke exports
.
1.
On January 14, 2016, Perusahaan Listrik Negara (Perusahaan Listrik Negara) refused to purchase renewable energy due to the high cost of renewable energy.
At the same time, it also plans to increase the installed capacity of the power plant by 35,000 megawatts by 2019, of which 80% For coal-fired power generation
.
2.
The demand for coal in India is growing rapidly.
The Australian Federation expects that India will import 245 million tons of coal in 15 years (210 million tons in 2014).
3.
India also initiated anti-dumping against Chinese coke at the end of December.
Everyone must understand this.
It is bad for exports, but it shows how much India attaches importance to the export trend of China's coke
.
From the above, we found a trend: the advantage of imported coal seems to be lost, and even in the matter of coke export, we should see the advantages of Chinese coal products begin to appear, and they have been "valued" by neighboring countries
.
? China may indeed become a net coal exporter in the future
.
China's demand is declining, while foreign demand is growing.
China's coal is more competitive than the United States.
The main competitor will undoubtedly be Australia, but the RMB exchange rate may depreciate
.
We believe that there will be one Belt and One Road only if the value is depreciated, and coal may be truly exported if the value is depreciated.
The future must be driven by the depreciation of the One Belt and One Road, but the probability and timing of the depreciation are not easy to grasp.
.
Without going too far, back to the topic: we don't want to make predictions, we just think that China's metallurgical coal may have export potential, and the import of thermal coal may decrease
.
Everyone knows that the second largest coal company in the United States went bankrupt, but the background of his bankruptcy is that the price of coal in the United States has only fallen by 30-40% from the high point, while the price of coal in China has fallen by 2/3 during the same period, and the price of international oil has fallen.
2/3, coal prices have fallen far less than China, and the second largest coal company in the United States has gone bankrupt.
We also know that many coal mines in Australia are also shutting down and shrinking, which shows that the competitiveness of domestic coal is still very strong (previously worried that American coal will enter Many people in China should not worry about it anymore.
) In addition, the exchange rate is more important.
If the devaluation of the renminbi becomes a trend, it will become more difficult to import, and it will be easier to export (this is also the most important assumption for us to make this judgment.
), and after the price cut on the Daqin line, some traders have taken the initiative to consult us on the possibility of exporting coal.
With the future reorganization and integration of coal superior production capacity to reduce costs and the development of the Belt and Road Initiative, China may indeed one day become a net coal exporter again.
, And historically, China has also been a net exporter of coal
.
It boldly guessed that China’s coal may change from net imports to net exports in the future, but in fact, it is still not so optimistic.
What we want to express is: the trend of reducing coal imports It is likely to accelerate
.
? The import and export pattern of China's coal industry is quietly changing
.
Let me talk about a few data: 1.
In 2015, the net export of coke was 9.
85 million tons, an increase of 15% year-on-year, and the year-on-year increase in December was as high as 43% (although the growth rate in the second half of the year was not ideal), 2.
After the import volume reached a high of 30-35 million tons, it has been declining.
The average net coal import in the past three months was only 15 million tons
.
? The pattern of foreign coal supply and demand is also changing: Indonesia's power company plans to build thermal power generation on a large scale, and India has begun to attach great importance to China's coke exports
.
1.
On January 14, 2016, Perusahaan Listrik Negara (Perusahaan Listrik Negara) refused to purchase renewable energy due to the high cost of renewable energy.
At the same time, it also plans to increase the installed capacity of the power plant by 35,000 megawatts by 2019, of which 80% For coal-fired power generation
.
2.
The demand for coal in India is growing rapidly.
The Australian Federation expects that India will import 245 million tons of coal in 15 years (210 million tons in 2014).
3.
India also initiated anti-dumping against Chinese coke at the end of December.
Everyone must understand this.
It is bad for exports, but it shows how much India attaches importance to the export trend of China's coke
.
From the above, we found a trend: the advantage of imported coal seems to be lost, and even in the matter of coke export, we should see the advantages of Chinese coal products begin to appear, and they have been "valued" by neighboring countries
.
? China may indeed become a net coal exporter in the future
.
China's demand is declining, while foreign demand is growing.
China's coal is more competitive than the United States.
The main competitor will undoubtedly be Australia, but the RMB exchange rate may depreciate
.
We believe that there will be one Belt and One Road only if the value is depreciated, and coal may be truly exported if the value is depreciated.
The future must be driven by the depreciation of the One Belt and One Road, but the probability and timing of the depreciation are not easy to grasp.
.
Without going too far, back to the topic: we don't want to make predictions, we just think that China's metallurgical coal may have export potential, and the import of thermal coal may decrease
.
Everyone knows that the second largest coal company in the United States went bankrupt, but the background of his bankruptcy is that the price of coal in the United States has only fallen by 30-40% from the high point, while the price of coal in China has fallen by 2/3 during the same period, and the price of international oil has fallen.
2/3, coal prices have fallen far less than China, and the second largest coal company in the United States has gone bankrupt.
We also know that many coal mines in Australia are also shutting down and shrinking, which shows that the competitiveness of domestic coal is still very strong (previously worried that American coal will enter Many people in China should not worry about it anymore.
) In addition, the exchange rate is more important.
If the devaluation of the renminbi becomes a trend, it will become more difficult to import, and it will be easier to export (this is also the most important assumption for us to make this judgment.
), and after the price cut on the Daqin line, some traders have taken the initiative to consult us on the possibility of exporting coal.
With the future reorganization and integration of coal superior production capacity to reduce costs and the development of the Belt and Road Initiative, China may indeed one day become a net coal exporter again.
, And historically, China has also been a net exporter of coal
.
