China's pharmaceutical economy is stable, slowing down, and social rigid demand still exists

Source: compared with the high-speed growth trend of the pharmaceutical industry in the past few years, the industry has been slowing down steadily in recent years, and this trend will not change in the short term But compared with other industries, the pharmaceutical industry is still a sunrise industry, and the social rigid demand still exists How to grasp the development rhythm in the industry transformation has become a problem faced by pharmaceutical enterprises Recently, the reporter learned from the national pharmaceutical economic information conference that the total output value of China's pharmaceutical industry is expected to reach 2884.2 billion yuan in 2015, with a year-on-year growth of 11.8%; in 2016, the total industrial output value will reach 3210 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.3% By 2020, it will reach 4840 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 11% - 13% Compared with the compound annual growth rate of pharmaceutical industry profit during the 11th Five Year Plan period, after entering the 12th Five Year Plan period, influenced by macroeconomic changes, drug price reform, cost and other factors, the growth rate of pharmaceutical industry profit slowed down significantly, and it is expected that the annual profit growth in 2015 will be 11.9% According to Lin Jianning, director of the South Institute of pharmaceutical economics of the State Food and drug administration, the pharmaceutical economy in 2016 mainly embodies six characteristics: first, the growth rate of the pharmaceutical economy will further decline; second, the business pattern will be changed from strict tax investigation; third, the situation of the hospital terminal will be severe due to the control of fees, bidding and resistance; fourth, the pressure of capital and market competition will increase the retail concentration; Fifth, exports may remain depressed; sixth, cost reduction and price adjustment are expected to stabilize the decline in profits Looking forward to the development of the pharmaceutical economy in the 13th five year plan, Lin Jianning believes that it is not expected to resume the original super high growth, but the medium to high growth still has a period, especially in the next three years After all, the public's demand for health is rigid, and the characteristics of the sunrise industry in the pharmaceutical industry will not change "Tangible + intangible" hand to speed up the clarification of market diseases "pharmaceutical companies can't follow suit, just want to make money It was found that the data of drug clinical trials were modified and deleted without authorization, and the data were suspected of being unreliable, untrue and fraudulent " Wu Zhen, deputy director of the State Food and drug administration, said recently In fact, there has been a persistent disease of repeated declaration and registration of drugs It is understood that there are 8 varieties applied by more than 100 enterprises, 23 varieties applied by more than 50 enterprises, and only these 31 varieties involve more than 1000 enterprises It is worth mentioning that 3980 new drugs of category 3.1 (not listed in China abroad) have been declared, of which 42 varieties have been declared by more than 20 enterprises and 4 varieties have been declared by more than 50 enterprises According to the reporter, in the next step, the State Food and Drug Administration will carry out a strict investigation on this, including applicants, clinical trial institutions, cros, etc if the enterprise withdraws actively, it will be dealt with lightly If the enterprise passively finds out, it will be dealt with seriously Not only the responsible person shall be investigated and blacklisted, the applicant shall not apply within 3 years, but also all the accepted ones shall be returned, and the previous ones shall also be traced Some pharmaceutical enterprises believe that there is no doubt that there is a lot of pressure on such strict control and evaluation, but in the long run it is definitely a good thing First, don't worry about the bad money driving out the good money, and fair competition In addition, when facing the high threshold of application, enterprises will also give up fluke psychology, reduce repetitive work, and integrate resources to focus on drugs that can truly solve practical clinical problems and meet the needs of patients Gong Zhaolong, a former drug review expert of the U.S national food and Drug Administration and an expert of the national "thousand talents plan", said that compared with the phenomenon that some pharmaceutical enterprises are in a rush, China's pharmaceutical industry also presents a situation of a hundred flowers blooming, from generic drugs to innovative drugs, different enterprises explore various research and development models and directions Enterprises should seize the opportunity of transformation China is a global pharmaceutical country Facing the transformation and upgrading of this huge market, how to seize the opportunity? Different enterprises have their own answers, but the core words are inseparable from the word "innovation" Xu Haiying, President of Novartis China, said in an exclusive interview with reporters: "this year, it is obvious that both the system reform at the national level and the exploration attempt at the local level have become more and more powerful in supporting innovation For example, the establishment of the Shanghai Branch of the drug evaluation center of the State Food and Drug Administration and the trial implementation of the listing license system are a major step in the field of new drug evaluation The new Shanghai R & D center of Novartis will be officially put into operation next year It is not only part of the global R & D network, but also will conduct more targeted research on the disease map of China " Xu Haiying said that despite the operating pressure of the environment, Novartis will continue to increase its investment in the Chinese market, especially in expanding its R & D team and projects Many insiders believe that compared with the past and other developing countries, China's efforts to create a talent training and innovation environment in recent years have improved the level of its R & D capability, attached great importance to the protection of intellectual property rights, and made a group of pharmaceutical enterprises driven by R & D more willing to choose the Chinese market Recently, Pfizer China R & D center and Shanghai Jiaotong University Yale Joint Biostatistics Center signed a memorandum of intent "R & D is the core to achieve the goal," said Wu Xiaobin, President of Pfizer China They will transform technology into a treatment plan that can bring benefits to patients, and meet diversified medical service needs through innovative and commercially viable ways In addition, some representatives of domestic pharmaceutical enterprises also said that although it may not be able to compete with foreign pharmaceutical enterprises in terms of volume, and new drug research and development may not catch up, increasing research and development and promoting innovation are indispensable factors in the development of enterprises.