​Coal prices rise "don't panic" coal supply is guaranteed this winter and next spring

Coal prices have been operating at a high level for several months.

High coal prices lead to policy shots

Since mid-to-late November, the coal market has experienced abnormal fluctuations, seriously deviating from the fundamentals of supply and demand.

In this issue, the spot transaction prices of 5,500 kcal and 5,000 kcal in the CECI Coastal Index were 654 yuan/ton and 588 yuan/ton, respectively, up 20 yuan/ton and 11 yuan/ton from the previous period; the combined price was 609 yuan/ton respectively.

Zhang Xingping, a professor at North China Electric Power University, said in an interview with a reporter from Beijing Business Daily that the main factor for the recent increase in coal prices is that the demand for heating in winter has led to a surge in electric coal.

Under this circumstance, on December 12, the National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium, demanding that the purchase of high-priced coal be strategically reduced, and the purchase price should not exceed 640 yuan per ton (approximately US$97.

Limited impact on power companies

From the perspective of supply, the output of my country's major coal-producing areas has declined.

As the pace of economic recovery accelerates, electricity consumption across the country has steadily increased.

　　However, in Zhang Xingping's view, the impact of coal price increases on power companies is limited.
"Because most of the thermal coal is long-term association, and many power generation companies have done futures hedging.
"

　　At the press conference, Meng Wei also pointed out that, in order to plan ahead and be prepared, the National Development and Reform Commission and related parties have strengthened guidance and supervision before the heating season to increase the inventory of power plants to a higher level.
The Northeast region is a key area to ensure coal supply during the heating season.
The National Development and Reform Commission began to organize winter coal and summer storage in July, implement coal sources through multiple channels, strengthen the connection between production, transportation and demand, and basically implement coal sources before heating starts.

　　He introduced that the National Development and Reform Commission has strengthened coordination and dispatch, organized large-scale coal mines in major coal producing areas such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia to scientifically and rationally organize production, played the role of stabilizer of coal medium and long-term contracts, strengthened coal transportation security, and better guaranteed the use of coal in society.
demand.
At present, the number of days available for coal storage in power plants nationwide is 21 days, and the number of days available for power plants in Heilongjiang Province with the lowest temperature in Northeast China is 31 days, both at a relatively high level.

　　Regarding the increase in coal prices in the spot market, Meng Wei said that since power plants mainly use coal purchased through annual medium and long-term contracts, the current coal price is generally stable.
From the monitoring situation, more than 80% of the coal supply is currently implemented in coal medium and long-term contracts, and the transaction price is between 540-550 yuan per ton.
The price increase of the remaining small part of the market will not affect the security of coal for people’s livelihood.
.
In the future, the National Development and Reform Commission will increase supply, adjust demand, and guide market coal prices to stabilize at a more reasonable level.

　　How to ensure long-term supply and control prices

　　What will happen to the coal price trend in the future? At the 2021 National Coal Trade Fair held recently, Yin Linlin, director of the Electricity and Fuel Division of the Ministry of Industry and Environment of the China Electricity Council (hereinafter referred to as "China Electricity Council"), said, “Overall, this year has been affected by the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
, Imported coal and local coal control policies, the mismatch of production, transportation and demand in the coal market is more serious, and price fluctuations are more severe.
However, coal storage in power plants has always been maintained at a relatively high level, and the overall balance of supply and demand in the thermal coal market is slightly tight.
Electricity, railways and other industries have increased the coordination and guarantee of electricity and coal, and power and heating in winter are generally guaranteed.
"

　　"Rising coal prices are now a seasonal issue.
There should be no problem after this season.
Coal prices should be relatively stable in the future.
Stabilizing prices and ensuring supply must be prepared in advance.
Judging from the current preparations of the National Development and Reform Commission, this Such short-term price increases should not have long-term effects.
" Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, said in an interview with a reporter from Beijing Business Daily, "Because the control of coal in the future should be more and more stringent, In the long run, coal prices are more likely to fall in the future.
"

　　While increasing coordination and control efforts at the national level, the China Electricity Council further pointed out the difficulty of ensuring supply and stable prices at the end of the year in its analysis weekly report: near the end of the year, it is difficult to increase production in the production area, and the inventory in the production area and Beigang is low, and it is difficult to accumulate warehouses.
In addition, high-quality and low-sulfur resources are in short supply; it will take time for the increase of imported coal to arrive in Hong Kong, and the pressure on the protection of thermal coal during the peak period of winter is greater.
The coal market has been severely distorted under the speculation in the futures market, which has seriously threatened the supply and control of electricity coal prices.

　　The CEC suggests that the country needs to further adopt special measures and comprehensively implement policies to guide the market to return to rationality as soon as possible.
Power companies need to analyze the market situation scientifically, operate the market steadily, guard against malicious speculation, and rationally carry out short-term coal purchases.

Transfer from: Beijing Commercial Daily

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