Comprehensive analysis report on domestic and international trend of soybean in July

Introduction: In the past July, the domestic and international soybean markets have experienced too much impact of fundamental changes The price trend has fluctuated, and the market has been rising and falling in an endless stream Near the end of the month, I think it is necessary to make a brief review of the situation and problems of domestic and International Soybean in this month, so that we can make clear from the inside and the outside The trend of soybean price in the future First of all, let's focus on the domestic market: the domestic soybean market often shows a sharp rise and fall in this month In the first two trading weeks, the period price of soybeans and the international market echoed each other's sharp rise The main contract S109 once broke the integer level of 2250 yuan and reached a new high of 2262 yuan this year However, in the second two weeks, it fell back sharply This weak trend deviated from CBOT's continuous high market and deviated from the large price ratio By the end of last week's trading day, the weak market pattern of Liandou market became more and more fierce, and S109 had dropped below 2100 yuan at the end of the month From the panel analysis, the international market CBOT strong upward is still unchanged, and the fundamentals are more favorable and frequent, so what event happened in the domestic soybean market and made the long run to abandon the position? As far as I know, up to now, there are three main negative factors: first, the number of South American soybeans imported from China's major ports increased sharply in June and July According to the latest data, the total amount of imported soybeans in June is more than 1.39 million tons, and most of these soybeans coming to Hong Kong come from South America, with low price, which has a certain impact on the domestic spot market It will take at least one or two months to fully digest these soybeans At that time, northeast soybeans will also be harvested, and the prices of production and sales areas are more difficult to rise Second, the strength of both sides Only the spot situation can not lead to the weak market situation of soybeans The more direct reason is that the rumors of delivery of 200000 tons of imported soybeans, which was said to be short in the early stage, have been realized by more than half At present, there are 160000 tons of warehouse receipts in Dalian delivery warehouse, of which 60000 tons are domestic soybeans and the rest 100000 tons are all imported soybeans It is the first time that such large-scale imported soybeans enter the delivery warehouse of the exchange in the domestic soybean futures market This is because in the early days, the rally of soybeans was too rapid and fierce, which led to a large number of low short positions being covered, and these spot traders were able to stop at this point, so they had no choice but to finally come up with a way to take the imported soybeans for delivery, and made every effort to enter the delivery warehouse, which made the previously seriously covered short positions quickly reverse the situation However, the exchange now allows imported soybeans to enter the delivery warehouse Once the contract enters the delivery period, the bulls will question the quality of imported soybeans and many other issues Then, the soybean market is inevitably a storm, which undoubtedly adds a lot of risks to the market Third, from the perspective of the market itself It is also imperative for the bull to reduce their positions After July, they are facing the spot contract of S109 The huge positions are expected to cause policy interference from the exchange and the management, which is common in the past trading history The exchange actually hit the bulls from the side by putting imported soybeans into the futures market From the position structure of S109, the bulls were speculators, and they didn't want to make a firm offer at that time Therefore, certain interference of the exchange made the Bulls leave the market quickly Based on the above analysis, the author thinks that the domestic market trend will be more brilliant Next, let's make a brief analysis of the international soybean market: CBOT has been speculating around the supply and demand situation, export sales and changes in weather conditions in the past month In addition to the above basic situation, there are also some new situations that we should pay attention to First, the U.S Department of Agriculture announced at the end of June that the second quarter of this year's report will reduce the actual planting area of soybeans in the United States this year to 75.4 million acres, 1.2 million acres less than the expected value at the beginning of the year The decrease of sowing area is caused by the bad weather conditions during spring sowing In the report, the USDA also lowered its year-end inventory value to 300 million bushels, which was mainly based on the continued high global demand for soybeans This report fundamentally reversed the concerns about the pressure on soybean supply in the early stage of the market CBOT period price successfully broke through the bottom with a sharp rise of 20 cents on June 29, which started the rise Secondly, the USDA released the report on the supply and demand of agricultural products in July, which predicted the total output of soybeans to be 2.985 billion bushels, a decrease of 50 million bushels compared with that of last month, and the carry over inventory was reduced to 345 million bushels in 2001 / 2002 USDA believed that this change was due to the continuous increase of crushing volume and export volume Third, since this year, the weather has been particularly unstable this month After entering June and July, the increasing temperature makes the threat of drought come quietly In the report of soybean growth published in July for three consecutive weeks, the good rates of soybean growth are 66%, 61% and 57%, respectively, while the good rates of the last week have dropped to 55% This gradually decreasing growth data shows that the growth of American soybean is under the threat of drought, and the per unit yield of soybean will be reduced in the year, which will further reduce the risk of drought The negative growth of total output will become a reality, which will affect CBOT soybean to reach a new high, with the contract in November reaching a new high of 538 cents / bushel this year At the end of July, there was extensive rainfall in the soybean producing areas of the United States, which gave CBOT a full callback power in the past month On July 20, CBOT fell by more than 20 cents, and the forward contract once fell below the 500 cents mark On the next day, the price rose by more than 10 cents under the weather of rainfall stopped and temperature picked up, and the period price was stable above 500 cents Judging from the fundamentals of the international soybean market in the past month, all around us are a steady stream of good news, and these favorable factors affecting the price trend will continue to play a role At present, soybean has entered a critical period of growth process In the next month, whether the weather conditions can be improved will directly affect the per unit yield level of this year If the basic conditions as expected remain unchanged, soybean prices will reach a new high again (author:) 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