Speculation and analysis on the second round of national drug joint procurement

In the past two days, a message about the second round of National Pharmaceutical Co production has been flowing out of some commercial companies By the end of this year, the second round of national intensive mining will be launched by the end of this year From November to December 2018, it took about 20 days from the start of the "4 + 7" project to the public bidding results Since April 1, 2019, 11 pilot cities have successively entered the implementation stage According to relevant official materials, as of the end of August, the purchase volume of 25 selected drugs in "4 + 7" cities was 1.7 billion pieces, and the implementation of the agreed total purchase progress was better than expected In September this year, 25 generic drugs were selected by enterprises Compared with the minimum purchase price of the same kind of drugs in 2018 in the expanded area, the average price of the selected drugs decreased by 59% As for the second batch of products purchased with volume, according to the relevant industry speculation in the first half of this year, the number of products jointly purchased by the state is about 200-300, basically targeting at 80% of the purchase amount of drugs We believe that the successful implementation of the 4 + 7 project and the expansion of joint procurement will continue to strengthen the determination of relevant parties to promote the volume procurement According to the statistics of pharmaceutical intelligence data, as of October 29, the acceptance number of varieties passing and deemed to pass the conformity assessment of generic drugs has reached 377, with 283 and 113 varieties passing the acceptance number; 94 and 48 varieties deemed to pass the acceptance number (subject to the catalogue set of drugs listed in China) Among them, there are 153 289 catalogue acceptance numbers, only 59 varieties In this way, if the second batch of national combined mining with production capacity is carried out at the end of this year, it will probably be selected from these ranges Based on the mature experience of joint mining and expansion, the author speculates that entering the second batch of national combined mining products should continue to use the mode of full competition of three or more enterprises (including original research, over evaluation and deemed over evaluation), that is, taking the lowest price of the whole country as the benchmark, making their own quotations, and the lowest bid price, the second lowest bid price and the third lowest bid price successively delisting Therefore, if the same generic name and specification meet the requirements of three or more evaluated medical institutions, and combined with the drug demand of local medical institutions, it will probably enter the competition sequence of mainstream product specifications, and price reduction is inevitable What's more, some people in the industry speculate that self funded drug over evaluation is also expected to have the opportunity to enter the second batch of joint mining According to the policy, the relevant established market will be divided by the selected enterprises Even if there is a surplus market, there is almost no space for the products that are not selected The remaining stock market is basically left to the original research and three reform products Theoretically, there are, but each hospital has hundreds of boxes, which can't be raised without scale representatives! From the perspective of commercial companies, the main concern is the change of the production side, and some adjustments should be made in time Drug price has a huge impact on the future of the business module It has been estimated before that even if all of them reach the purchasing volume, the market is shrinking dramatically Production is not easy, business is not easy This is exactly the person on the boat, who is both prosperous and destructive For enterprises, what we are worried about now is that if the price continues to decline, the capacity and supply of enterprises after winning the bid, including the supply of APIs, and the risk of enterprises succumbing to cost reduction and quality reduction will come in succession From the perspective of drug marketing license holders, the risk of being responsible for the whole life cycle of drugs and bearing corresponding legal liabilities must be taken into consideration by the relevant parties of the holders And for hospitals, the impression of doctors on the drugs that have been replaced by over evaluated drugs is also slowly changing According to relevant research, 50% of doctors in a certain place think that the evaluated products are different from the original drugs in drug efficacy and safety, but they are acceptable Nearly 20% of hospitals think that there are still differences Generic drugs are not as good as the original drugs, and nearly 20% of doctors think that they are quite the same From the above research, nearly 70% of doctors have basically accepted the product evaluation to replace the original research This will be a relative good for the promotion of the second batch of combined mining expansion that may be about to start The era of high gross profit is over, and the forms and methods of competition in the future are completely changed It turns out that it's hard to survive in the way of holding high In the future, the three criteria for volume purchase are simple and complex, that is: new low price: living capital! Expand sales: live with quality! Light sales: Farewell to the gray age! Thunder, rain, and dew are all grace! In the new era of drug bidding and purchase, medical people can no longer see flowers in the fog or watch the moon in the water and repeat the past stories The old ticket can no longer board your passenger ship Only be self serving and move forward with the trend Listen to the white statement: this point of view only represents the author, not the position of yaozhi.com, welcome to exchange and supplement in the message area; if you need to reprint, please be sure to indicate the author and source of the article.