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Yesterday, copper prices continued to maintain a strong trend, intraday Shanghai copper main contract once touched around 69,000 yuan / ton, London copper thirteen consecutive yang, Shanghai copper nine consecutive yang, oil prices rise led to inflation expectations continue to rise, continue to maintain the previous bullish view, but short-term copper price over-rise pullback risk is greater
.
In addition to the aforementioned over-the-top risk, there are currently rumors in the market that the recent price rise may trigger a position delivery, and the improvement of the global epidemic may accelerate the tightening of monetary policy
, which is worth paying attention to.
On the macro front, global central banks are likely to continue to maintain their current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the US dollar is expected to remain weak
.
On the fundamental front, the CSPT team finalized the floor price for copper concentrate processing fees for the first quarter of 2021 at $53/mt and $5.
3/lb, down $5 and 0.
5 cents from Q4 2020, indicating that the market remains pessimistic
about future copper concentrate supply expectations.
On the demand side, China's current control of the new crown epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to pull copper demand, with the off-season delayed, the next peak season to warehouse is likely to form a strong support for copper prices, maintain the long-term bullish judgment
of copper prices.
Copper prices ushered in the first correction in overnight trading after a sharp rise after the holiday, but copper prices rose and turned red
again under the dovish appeasement of the Federal Reserve.
At the current point, it shows that inventories are low, the supply side is still tight, and the fundamentals are still strong
due to the upcoming demand season.
However, for the rise in short-term that has exceeded fundamental reality and carried more expectations and market sentiment, it is recommended to maintain a cautious
optimism.
