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Yesterday, the US dollar index closed up for the fourth consecutive day, but after the copper price fell the previous day, downstream buying boom emerged, and the market premium quotation continued to be firm, so the copper price did not continue the previous decline, but showed a trend of recovery from the low, indicating that the current copper price is more back to its fundamentals, and in the case of relatively limited fundamental changes, copper prices still maintain a volatile pattern
.
On the macro front, global central banks will continue to maintain their current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies in the short term, and although the dollar has been strong after this interest rate meeting, it is largely an overdraft
of future economic growth.
The US CPI data for June recorded the biggest increase in recent years, but Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his dovish stance, stressing that there would be no rush to tighten monetary policy
.
South American epidemic, strike and other events on the mine end of the disturbance gradually recovered, domestic copper enterprises in July maintenance efforts are small, this year the second batch of State Reserve Bureau non-ferrous metals (copper, aluminum zinc) dumping will continue, copper mine supply in the short term tends to be loose
.
The performance of downstream consumption in the off-season is more obvious, and the demand for copper market has not changed significantly
.
In terms of fundamentals, the current TC price continues to recover, coupled with the rumors of domestic storage dumping, so the supply side has a more negative impact on copper prices, while on the demand side, China's current control of the new crown epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to pull copper demand, so overall, it maintains a relatively neutral attitude
.
Overall, the macro temporarily lacks clearer guidance, the current market may be in the process of gradual desensitization of tapper, while the expectation of trading "inflation" is also weakening, or in the short term or mainly volatile
.
The Fed's policy changes are still a key factor influencing the direction of the market, pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision on July 28, when copper prices may be expected to choose direction
.
