Copper prices remain strong and volatile in the short term, and the expectation of bottoming out in the medium term is obvious

Externally, the LME is closed
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In terms of the market, the external market continued to be closed for Easter, Shanghai copper due to the surge in Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly, the last trading day of the 1704 month contract, the holders of the 1705 contract quotation, generally stable in flat water copper discount 80 yuan / ton - discount 70 yuan / ton, good copper discount 70 yuan / ton - discount 50 yuan / ton, wet copper quotation discount 110 yuan / ton - discount 90 yuan / ton, the basis fluctuation of the next month is sharp, from about 180 yuan / ton in the morning gradually narrowed to about 130 yuan / ton, Speculators took advantage of the low price to absorb low-priced sources, and the downstream entered the market to receive goods after the copper price stabilized slightly, and the quotation of wet copper was still firm due to the shortage of supply, and the receiving transaction was mostly flat water copper brand, so that the good copper discount could not be expanded, and the transaction improved
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The market generally believes that the discount quotation of copper will reappear after tomorrow's moon change, but the room for expansion of the top price discount of wet copper is limited
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In the afternoon session, with the narrowing of the price difference in the next month, the current copper quotation continues to shrink, flat water copper to 1705 contract reported a discount of 70 yuan / ton - discount of 60 yuan / ton, premium copper reported a discount of 60 yuan / ton - discount of 50 yuan / ton, good copper and flat water copper almost no price difference, the transaction price is 46150 yuan / ton - 46300 yuan / ton
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Short-term logic: Copper concentrate processing fees did not fall further last week, remaining flat from the previous week, with extreme processing fees still below $70/mt
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Due to the end of the copper strike disruption, the expected level is mainly the recovery of supply of previously affected copper concentrate, but we believe that as long as interest rates do not rise, the current copper term structure can bear the pressure of partial copper mine supply recovery, so the expected absolute pressure is not particularly large
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The reality this week is that as the 1704 contract enters the delivery week, spot may turn into a premium pattern, and the spot market is more nervous, supporting copper prices, but it is estimated that the support can only continue until delivery is completed
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Medium-term logic: the rigid increase in global copper concentrate supply in 2017 is relatively small, and the elastic increase mainly depends on the price, and although the refining capacity is more put in, but limited by the supply of copper concentrate, the actual supply increment is not enough to make the copper price fall again, so the medium-term copper price bottom is expected to be obvious
.